- The dollar again managed to lure the global market so that the movement of the exchange rate of the US currency ended the trading last week with rall and returned to win the forex market on a weekly basis for the second straight time. More fundamentally strong currency against major currencies brought back to a bullish start trading the Asian session today (30/11).
- For the movement of the exchange rate on a monthly basis, the movement today will further strengthen to continue strengthening the monthly price for the third consecutive month in November.
- Sentiment plans Fed rate hike later this year further explain the strongest position which today is estimated dollar touched a new record high after last March touched position 100.32 Against major currencies in the spot market this morning looks still superior except against the Aussie and Yen exchange rate even in a limited volume.
- Dollar exchange rate today will again receive positive sentiment from the US housing sector data, where the data release data show an increased potential for new home sales data.
- Monitor the strength of the US dollar exchange rate against other currencies on the US dollar index today (01:00:40 GMT) rolling in the range 100.20, up from 100.11 opening at 0000 GMT. Technically, Analyst ZATco Resarch Center see the movement of the US dollar index is based on the high price and low at 99.64 100.20 earlier today, the index is expected to have a resistance in the range of 100.52 and 100.29, while immediate support in the range of 99.73 and 99.40.
The Failed Hollande, unemployment in France Most Throughout History
The number of unemployed is the highest in the history of unemployment is recorded that in 1996, which at that time unemployment was recorded at 3.1714 million people. This condition is increasingly worsen the image of President Francois Hollande is considered increasingly failing to fulfill its promise to reduce the unemployment rate in the country.
- Number of registered jobseekers in France surged in October, reversing the decline in September and it also creates a record of the highest unemployment in the country since 1996. These data are consistent with reports of labor statistics institute French-Dares on Friday (27 / 11)
- From the report noted, the number of category A job seekers who are registered job seekers who are fully unemployed gaining 42,000 people in October from September, which reached 3.5898 million people. This number increased from 1.2% on a monthly basis and 3.7% on an annual basis.
Unemployed Persons
- The number of unemployed is the highest in the history of unemployment is recorded that in 1996, which at that time unemployment was recorded at 3.1714 million people. This condition is increasingly worsen the image of President Francois Hollande is considered increasingly failing to fulfill its promise to reduce the unemployment rate in the country.
- Besides increasing the number of unemployed in the country that had just experienced terrorist problem raises doubts over the strength of economic recovery in the second largest economy of the euro zone. President Hollande also promised not advance to the next election if they failed to bring down unemployment.
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Before the Terror in France, Excitement Shopping Already Slump
Decline in domestic household spending triggered by the fall fashion new car shopping up to down 3.4 percent and also shopping electronic products 1.1 percent. Meanwhile shopping fashion and leather products fell 1 percent.
- French country recently hit by a great fear of the country after the terrorist attacks that killed hundreds of people. The terrorist attack was the worst attack suffered the second largest country in the Euro area. Because of this attack also makes the shopping spirit in the country of destination shopping luxury goods world slump.
- But it turns out a month before the event the country's shopping spirit in which the index has been declining household spending data shows France experienced a contraction of data from 7-month rise. In the monthly expenditure of French people has reduced the impact of the economic downturn experienced by the country.
France Household Consumption
- French household spending fell for the first time in seven months in October, according to the statistics office Insee showed down 0.7 percent on a monthly basis, in contrast with the 0.1 percent increase seen in September.
- Decline in domestic household spending triggered by the fall fashion new car shopping up to down 3.4 percent and also shopping electronic products 1.1 percent. Meanwhile shopping fashion and leather products fell 1 percent.
- Triggers decline in interest expenditure also fueled the rise in domestic inflation in October after two months earlier infalsi at position 0 percent. French inflation in October increased 0.1 percent on an annual basis.
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Hong Kong Exchanges initial Moving Negative Sentiment Negative Exposure to China
At the opening of the Hong Kong stock exchange trading early in the week on Friday (30/11), the Hang Seng index opened negative, when it was observed down -45.40 points, or -0.21 per cent, at 22,022.92. The weakening of the Hang Seng index followed the negative sentiment weakening of the Chinese yuan currency and the decline in oil prices weighed on stocks of petroleum.
- Meanwhile, the yuan reached a three-month low ahead of the next meeting of the International Monetary Fund on the inclusion of the yuan in special drawing rights in its currency basket. </ li>
- Bank Rakyat Tionkok sets yuan mid-price at 6.3962 on Monday, 47 points weaker on Friday. Trader is allowed to trade up to 2 percent on either side of the middle price. </ Li>
- Yuan traded at 6.3927 ground against the US dollar, after hitting 6.3974, the lowest level since August 27 was 6.4043. </ li>
- offshore yuan trading at 6.4405, after also hitting a three-month low at 6.4591 earlier in the day. </ li>
- As for stocks that become ballast Hang Seng is the share Tingyi Cayman Islands Holding Corp which fell -2.46%, shares of Ping An Insurance Group Co. of China Ltd. fell -2.08%, shares of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. down -1.89%, shares of China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. fell -1.83%, shares of Bank of East Asia Ltd / The down 1.8%. </ li>
- While the movement of the Hang Seng index futures this morning observed a weakening of -47 points, or -0.21% at 21,952.00, down from the previous closing at 21,999.00. </ li>
- ZATco Analyst Research Center estimates that the movement of the Hang Seng Index today will move to respond to the negative sentiment weakened limited economic conditions of China. Index is expected to move in the range of 21665-21370 Support and Resistance range 22275-22588. </ Li>
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Chinese exchanges Moving Negative With Securities Company Investigation Process
Started trading Chinese stocks earlier in the week on Monday (30/11), the Shanghai index had a positive opening this morning, but when it was observed a negative turn down -44.55 points, or -1.30 percent, at 3391.75.
The weakening of the Chinese exchange as investor concerns over the investigations being carried out against the Chinese regulator of securities firms.
- Last week, the China Securities Regulatory Commission to formally investigate at the securities firm action to get rid of short selling and speculation.
- Securities companies traded in the red zone. Citic Securities shares fell 2.18 percent while shares of Founder Securities and China Merchants trimmed down 0.11 percent and 2.37 percent. Shares of Haitong Securities, which are not traded on Friday, fell 9.93 percent.
- While it shares all the Chinese banks traded in positive territory, boosted by news of the entry of the possibility of the yuan currency into Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This would make the yuan as a reserve currency officially recognized.
- ICBC, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, CCB, and Bank of Commerce rose between 0.48 and 1.27 percent.
- While the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.5 percent; ChiNext tech-heavy index down 0.4 percent; and the blue chip index CSI 300 fell 0.5 percent.
- For further trade, there is still no indicator data that will be released, but worth noting China's own domestic economic conditions also the movement of global markets and commodities.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the Shanghai index is still likely to weaken limited moves to respond to the concerns of investors to the investigation of the company's securities regulator.
- The index will try to move in the range 3369-3308 Support through the level and if the price rose will try to penetrate the resistance level at 3512 to 3593.
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Dollar strength Withstand Commodity Prices
Begin trading today, we report the first movement of the US stock market ended mixed last weekend effect of the decline in Disney stock and oil prices, while markets in the Thanksgiving Day holiday on Friday.
- Dow Jones down 0.08% to 17798.49 influenced by the weakening of the stock Walt Disney, SP500 up 0.06% to 2090.11 encouraged the strengthening of the telecommunication sector and material stocks as well as the Nasdaq rose 0.22% to 5127.52.
- Asian stock market trading this morning, opened declining influence of the plan the Fed will raise interest rates in December and weakening the influence of China's stock markets end pekanlalu.
- Nikkei fell 0.29% to 19827.94 effect of weakening the stock Sony, Canon and Mitsubishi Electric, the ASX 200 fell 0.29% to 5188 driven by strength in the stock miner Mount Gibson, Westpac and National Australia Bank, as well as the Kospi fell 1.07 to 2007.33 effect of weakening the stock electronics giant Samsung, LG Electronics, LG Display and steel producer Posco.
- Of the commodities market, the price of gold on Friday trading decreased almost 2% six-year low of 1.2% to 1052.46 dollars per troy ounce decline in the influence of Wall Street and the projected increase in the federal funds rate in December.
- Medium WTI crude oil price at Friday's close yesterday weakened sharply by 3.09% at 41.71 dollars per barrel position influence the US dollar index is at a high level of eight months and the influence her off Wall Street last weekend.
- Of the foreign exchange market, the strengthening of the US dollar against other major currencies last week, EURUSD fell 0.16% to a level of 1.05915, the GBPUSD down 0.46% to a level of 1.50306, USDJPY rose 0.15% to a level of 122.739.
- Of the Indonesian capital market, at the close of trading last Friday JCI penurunansebesar 0.8% to a level of 4560.56. JCI weakening the effect of weakening the weekend China's stock markets and sluggish US stock market trading give negative sentiment. Today JCI is expected to be in the range of support 4505-4533 and 4597-4635 Resistance range. Stocks that are interesting to observe today: BBNI, ICBP, LPKR & UNVR.
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Crude Oil Prices Decline Sharply Depressed Strengthening US Dollar
- Crude oil prices in the Asian trading session early Saturday (28/11) had fallen sharply, pressured the dollar index rise to the highest position of 8 months, increased the pressure of oversupply the preceding, making the market continues in a bearish trend.
- Strengthening of the US dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, adding to the negative sentiment that began the previous day with the Chinese economic data were disappointing.
- WTI oil futures prices for December contract closed down $ 1.33, or 3.09 percent to 41.71 dollars per barrel. US crude oil futures trading also fell because of holidays in this country.
- Meanwhile, the price of Brent oil futures fell 59 cents to 44.87 dollars per barrel, after settling 71 cents to 45.46 dollars per barrel in the previous session. Oil prices reached the lowest point of 44.80 dollars per barrel earlier in the session.
- On Friday, officials with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) questioned the optimistic estimates from researchers, with some skeptical there will be a rapid easing associated oversupply in 2016. The group is scheduled to hold an annual policy meeting on 4 December.
- Earlier in the day, the Chinese stock market plunged more than 5 percent, hit by fears of regulatory and industry sector profits decline. Indications of economic worries in the world's biggest energy consuming nation usually hit the oil price, especially considering the global surplus that disrupt physical oil.
- Most market analysts expect OPEC announced plans to not cut production next week despite the financial strain.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center predicted oil prices will potentially be a natural pressure with sentiment excess world oil supplies. The price of oil will be moved through a range of 40.00 to 38.00 Support, if prices turn higher will try to penetrate the resistance range of 44.00 to 46.00.
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Recession Weight the people of Japan, Monthly Spending Less
In a statement also said that the government will maintain the target of halving the primary budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 as a source of extra budget for economic stimulus.
- The Government of Japan today announced khabar bad for economic conditions that had just experienced a recession in the third quarter. The bad news was announced by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan reported Japan's core inflation fell in October for the third consecutive month and household spending slumped participate as well.
- The average household spending in Japan posted a decline of 2.4 percent (yoy) in October last, the continued contraction of 0.4 percent (yoy) in the previous month. The average monthly income per household in the last month amounted to ¥ 415,467, down 1.6 percent (yoy), while the average consumption expenditure per household is ¥ 298,733, down 1.7 percent (yoy).
Japan Household Spending
- Responding to the above report, Economy Minister Akira Amari said that the unexpected drop in household spending in October shows that consumers still lack confidence in the economy of this nation, as quoted by Reuters.
- In a statement also said that the government will maintain the target of halving the primary budget deficit for fiscal year 2015 as a source of extra budget for economic stimulus.
- Economic recessions in cherry country gives a burden for people, until the month of their monthly expenditure reduced.
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Dollar strength undermines Rupiah week, Translucent 13800
Ending the forex trading this week successfully strengthened the rupiah exchange rate on a daily basis as well as on a weekly basis which fell more than one percent. Today Rupiah weakened against the dollar ignored the positive sentiment on the stock market by the influx of foreign funds hundreds of billions.
- More the number of shares by buying foreign exchange to the second session ends moving around the net buy Rp229,8 billion but JCI closed lower Friday afternoon from the previous trading. JCI weekend ended in the red with a decline of 0.8 percent in 4561 after the beginning of trading positions opened 4559.
- The movement of the US dollar itself on the spot market is still showing strength against major currencies except the yen after the beginning of trade had shown a weaker position than before. Dollar strength is what keeps pressing the rupiah exchange rate also weakened 1.1 percent on a weekly basis from the previous week.
- Today the rupiah weakened 0.43% to the position of Rp13.801 / US $ from the end of the previous trading in the spot market after opening at position 13739 / US $ morning. Thus Jisdor predefined BI rate today rose from the previous trading becomes 13747 of 13733 Thursday (26/11). Likewise based BI transaction rate for interbank transactions today, the rupiah strengthened pegged Rp13,816 / US $ for selling and Rp13,678 / US $ exchange rate and purchase.
- Analyst ZATco Research Center estimates that the movement of the rupiah against the US dollar in early trading last week by the prospect of potentially weakening dollar strength this weekend.
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The $30 Oil Cliff Threatening Russia's Economy
- Crude prices at that level will push the economy to depths that would threaten the nation’s financial system, according to 63 percent of respondents in survey. Lower prices for the fuel are next year’s biggest risk for Russia, which is unprepared to ride out another shock on the oil market, most economists said. Other dangers for 2016 include geopolitics, strains in the banking industry and the ruble, according to the poll of 27 analysts.
- “If oil prices fall lower and stay at that low level for longer, risks of fiscal and financial destabilization increase significantly,” Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at PAO Promsvyazbank in Moscow, said by e-mail.
- Russia, which has adjusted to the worst commodities slump in a generation with spending cutbacks and a weaker ruble, may be hard-pressed for policy answers if the slump in oil prices deepens after a drop of 37 percent in the past year. While Brent, the European benchmark, is trading around $45 a barrel, a warmer-than-average winter could weaken heating-fuel demand enough to trigger a decline in the price of crude to $20, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note Nov. 18.
by andre T & Olga T
- For Russia, $30 is the number to watch.
OPEC Persistence
- Oil has dropped as U.S. inventories climbed to near a record and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced above its quota. OPEC, which meets to discuss policy Dec. 4 in Vienna, is set to stick with its strategy of defending market share by maintaining output and driving down higher-cost production elsewhere, according to all 30 analysts and traders in a separate survey.
- Low or lower oil prices remain “the key risk for the Russian economy, despite adaptation to the shock during 2015,” said Andreas Schwabe, an economist at Raiffeisen Bank International AG in Vienna. “From that risk, an even weaker ruble and new waves of high inflation and budget problems derive.”
- Further complicating the outlook are geopolitical tensions that followed the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkey in Syria last week and pushed investors to sell Russian assets. In addition to events in the Middle East, Russia also has to contend with international sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine.
Whither Sanctions
- A diplomatic thaw between Russia and its Cold War-era foes in the aftermath of terrorist attacks in Paris and Egypt has stoked optimism that the improved relations will help remove the punitive measures.
- Russia may get that boost in the next 12 months, with 56 percent of economists saying the European Union will ease its penalties during the period, up from 34 percent the last time the question was asked in August. Twenty percent predict the U.S. will begin relaxing its restrictions in the next calendar year, compared with 3 percent three months ago.
- EU countries will probably extend sanctions for another six months at the end of January despite improved cooperation in Syria, according to three European diplomats. The bloc’s 28 leaders are set to discuss the issue at a Dec. 17-18 summit.
by andre T & Olga T
- “Only without sanctions will the Russian economy return to GDP growth,” said Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, an economist at Berenberg Bank in Hamburg, Germany. Despite “a unique chance for a thaw between Russia and the West,” there’s “a substantial risk that this chance is not taken, implying prolonged sanctions.”
Ruble, Economy
- The adjustment to the new economic reality was helped by swift changes in the exchange rate, Bank of Russia First Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva said in Moscow Friday. The ruble is down almost 32 percent against the dollar since the central bank shifted to a free-floating regime in November 2014. That’s the third-worst performance among its emerging-market peers after Brazil’s real and Colombia’s peso.
- A renewed bout of ruble weakness last summer forced policy makers to pause monetary easing in September and October after five consecutive interest-rate cuts brought their benchmark to 11 percent. Even as high borrowing costs choke investment, Governor Elvira Nabiullina in November left open the possibility of keeping rates on hold until March.
$30 Oil?
- Russia has learned to live with oil near $40 and only a decline to $30 a barrel can provoke another deterioration, which isn’t the most likely scenario, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Nov. 25. The central bank estimates that in a stress-case scenario, with crude below $40 in 2016-2018, the economy will contract 5 percent or more next year and price growth may be at 7 percent to 9 percent. That would also raise risks to inflation and financial stability, according to the Bank of Russia.
- GDP will contract 3.9 percent to 4.4 percent this year and may shrink as much as 1 percent next year if oil stays at $50 a barrel, the central bank forecasts.
- “The second leg down in oil prices and likely further capital outflows will add more pressures to Russia’s ailing economy,” said Nerijus Maciulis, chief economist at Swedbank AB in Vilnius, Lithuania. “The next wound will open up on banks’ balance sheets -- non-performing loans are set to rise much further and will further drain public funds.”
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