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The following is a summary of the major events that moved the market last week:
by Tri Utomo AS
We need to look at the major events that moved the market last week in order to keep abreast of the rise or decline of key indicators in the forex calendar and have a view of the future.
How To Trade OnThe Right Track This Week
- Draghi's decision is always dramatic, but not in the expected direction: the ECB is only making the minimum interest rate cuts, do perluasana QE minimal as well and no additional in monthly purchases. Although there is an option to do more and reinvest the results, but the ECB has failed in his estimates, sending EUR / USD rose over 400 pips higher. In the US, the labor market posted solid gains in November to add 211,000 jobs, cope with market forecasts. These positive numbers are preceded by an increase of 298,000 jobs in October, making way for a rise in interest rates this month. This release comes a day after the Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen stated that the conditions for the first interest rate increase has been met.
Positive things that happened in the last week:
- Nonfarm payrolls came in at 211k, above the 190k expected; all systems are ready for liftoff.
- PMI manufacturing index came in at 52.8, in line with expectations.
- Construction spending rose 1%, above the 0.6% expected rise.
- Unemployment came in at 5%, in line with expectations.
- Factory orders rose 1.5%, up from the 1% decline previously.
- MBA mortgage applications purchase index rose 8% w/o/w and 30% y/o/y.
- ADP employment report came in at 217k vs the 183k expected.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, in line with expectations.
- Initial jobless claims came in at 269k, lowering the 4-week moving avg to 269.25k.
- PMI services index came in at 56.1, up from 54.8 previously.
Negative things that happened last week:
- ISM manufacturing index falls to 48.6, the lowest reading since June 2009.
- Chicago PMI came in at 48.7, down from 56.2 previously and below expectations.
- Pending home sales grew just 0.2%, below the 1% expected increase.
- ISM no-manufacturing index fell to 55.9 from 59.1 and below the 58.2 expected.
| November to 4 December 2015 Table |
| DATE | High | Time | Low | Time | Duration | Total Vol | |||
| 05/11/2015 | 1.08916 | 11:00 | 1.08327 | 09:55 | 0:55 | New Record | 10679 | ||
| 06/11/2015 | 1.08799 | 15:00 | 1.07064 | 15:30 | 0:30 | Big Dawnfall | 5142 | ||
| 02/12/2015 | 1.06261 | 21:45 | 1.05499 | 19:25 | 2:20 | New Record | 18535 | ||
| 03/12/2015 | 1.09360 | 18:40 | 1.04997 | 14:45 | 3:19 | Big Trap (triple trap) | 26194 | ||
| 04/12/2015 | 1.09446 | 15:30 | 1.08624 | 15:35 | 0:05 | Quick Move/Kiling Pits | 2922 |
| 04/12/2015 | 1.09526 | 17:05 | 1.08359 | 19:30 | 1:58 | Big Downfall | 34430 |
04/12/2015
After efforts Dollar Free Fall In Weekend =
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI US Its Disappointing =
Preview: Non-Manufacturing ISM Index US =
The Fed's Beige Book report: Slow Economic Growth in Most US =
Preview: Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) AS =
Some Things That Look Ahead Release US Labor =
Euro Session States Dollar By Skyrocketed Defeat ECB Decision =
Reference Interest Rate Fixed However ECB Deposit Facility Rate Negative =
Preview: ECB Policy Meeting-Decision Rate =
European Stocks Move Positive Stimulus Policy tuned ECB =
Retail Business Region State Euro Medium Worrying =
Big Trap (triple trap)
03/12/2015
Yellen Signal Strong US Interest Rates To Increase In December = Speech Janet Yellen Back Save Dollar =
Preview: ADP Employment Report AS =
Wall Street Ends Negative Distressed down Oil =
Gold prices eroded The strengthening of the US Interest Rate Prospects Increase =
Euro European Session December 2 Collapsing Again By Inflation Estimates data =
Recent policy ahead of the ECB, Euro December 3 The Limp =
New Record
02/12/2015
Dollar Recovers Back And Ready To Beat Rival Today = Gold Preview: Statement Yellen, ECB meeting and US NFP =
Crude Oil Prices Rise Amid Weakening Dollar and Markets The Lethargic =
The German unemployment Drastic Decline Steady Rebound Euro =
Unemployment Rate Declines, Strengthens Economic Growth Trust German =
01/12/2015
US Dollar Daily Fundamental Early December = Forex Outlook Calendar This Week =
European Stocks Move Positive With Stimulus Hopes ECB =
Global market tuned ECB Policy and Data Labor =
Gold and Silver Outlook This Week =
Forex Weekly Technical Analysis This week =
Hindered by Supply Crude Oil Prices OPEC and Iran Export =
Wall Street Closed Negative, Hope Rebound In US Manufacturing data =
27/11/2015
Momentum Dollar Rally Continue Black Friday Weekend = US Consumers More Cautious In Shopping (Thanksgiving Day) =
Increasing the amount of savings Americans Continue =
US Durable Goods Orders Up 3% in October =
Gold Price Down =
Italian Retail Business Worst Months In 3 Months =