Posts
07 August 2015, 09:56
COMMERZBANK: WE GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT ANOTHER RATE CUT FROM NORGES BANK IN
SEPTEMBER, AS INFLATION ROSE SURPRISINGLY SHARPLY IN JUNE TO 2.6%
Central Europe growth likely steady
07 August 2015, 09:51
In Central Europe, solid growth continued in Q2 and will prove to be
persistent. In Poland, growth has been steady for the last 10 quarters, and this
trend is expected to continue with growth at 3.4% y/y, the same pace as in Q1
(SA).
"In recent quarters, domestic demand has been the main growth driver (up 5% y/y in Q1), more contribution from exports in Q2 and a slight easing in domestic demand", says Barclays.
There is some upside risk to the forecast if domestic demand remains elevated (the strong July PMI supports this view).
"For Hungary, steady growth is expected in Q2 of 3.3% y/y. During the past two quarters rising consumption and surging exports have offset declines in investment which had previously been artificially supported by rising EU transfers and central bank subsidised lending", added Barclays.
There are some downside risks to the forecasts and expect moderation of growth going forward on reduced investment spending (the low July PMI reading could presage this growth easing, though PMI has been volatile and an unreliable indicator of Hungary growth).
In the Czech Republic, growth surged in Q1 and appears to have remained elevated in Q2 and beyond, as indicated by the elevated PMI levels, rising retail sales and IP. While Israel growth decelerated in Q1 to just 2.0% q/q (saar), a reversion is expected to normal in Q2 at 2.9%, forecasts Barclays.
"In recent quarters, domestic demand has been the main growth driver (up 5% y/y in Q1), more contribution from exports in Q2 and a slight easing in domestic demand", says Barclays.
There is some upside risk to the forecast if domestic demand remains elevated (the strong July PMI supports this view).
"For Hungary, steady growth is expected in Q2 of 3.3% y/y. During the past two quarters rising consumption and surging exports have offset declines in investment which had previously been artificially supported by rising EU transfers and central bank subsidised lending", added Barclays.
There are some downside risks to the forecasts and expect moderation of growth going forward on reduced investment spending (the low July PMI reading could presage this growth easing, though PMI has been volatile and an unreliable indicator of Hungary growth).
In the Czech Republic, growth surged in Q1 and appears to have remained elevated in Q2 and beyond, as indicated by the elevated PMI levels, rising retail sales and IP. While Israel growth decelerated in Q1 to just 2.0% q/q (saar), a reversion is expected to normal in Q2 at 2.9%, forecasts Barclays.
FxWirePro: Trade AUD/JPY with call spreads, hedge with PRBS
07 August 2015, 09:51
The trading call was generated with the help long bullish engulfing like
pattern, positively converging leading oscillators and relevant volume
confirmation. The bullish candle has broken crucial resistance at 91.311 levels,
14 day RSI at that point was positively converging along with healthy volume
confirmation.
As you can see volatility of near month ATM calls are perceived almost close to 10% which is at quite higher side while vega of the same is at 715, using vega spreads we can neutralize and participate in prevailing short term uptrend.
AUD/JPY Put Ratio Back Spread:
One can build AUDJPY put ratio back spread regardless of swings by improving odds in its positions as explained below. That In-The-Money puts on short side in put ratio back-spreads are always at risk of exercise if the market tumbles, but you have two advantages.
Firstly, keeping maximum tenor on long side: Giving a longer time to expiration for long sides, any abrupt drastic moves on the downside so that assignment can be covered by the long puts.
Secondly, time decay advantage: Using near month contracts or contracts shorter tenor on short side signifies the importance of entering the position when IV is lower than average but AUDJPY IV is seen at 10% which is quite higher side (due to data season), so let us keep maturity on short side as normal as near month contract period. Time decay and implied volatility work in your favor on the short puts.
As you can see volatility of near month ATM calls are perceived almost close to 10% which is at quite higher side while vega of the same is at 715, using vega spreads we can neutralize and participate in prevailing short term uptrend.
AUD/JPY Put Ratio Back Spread:
One can build AUDJPY put ratio back spread regardless of swings by improving odds in its positions as explained below. That In-The-Money puts on short side in put ratio back-spreads are always at risk of exercise if the market tumbles, but you have two advantages.
Firstly, keeping maximum tenor on long side: Giving a longer time to expiration for long sides, any abrupt drastic moves on the downside so that assignment can be covered by the long puts.
Secondly, time decay advantage: Using near month contracts or contracts shorter tenor on short side signifies the importance of entering the position when IV is lower than average but AUDJPY IV is seen at 10% which is quite higher side (due to data season), so let us keep maturity on short side as normal as near month contract period. Time decay and implied volatility work in your favor on the short puts.
07 August 2015, 09:50
BOJ GOV KURODA: PRICE INDICATOR EXCLUDING FRESH FOOD, ENERGY PRICES IS ONE OF
VARIOUS INDICATORS WE USE TO DETERMINE PRICE TRENDS BUT NOT MAJOR INDICATOR