Posts
01 July 2015, 12:59
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -CIRCUMSTANCES FOR BOE NOW BEARS "NO COMPARISON"
WITH SITUATION WHEN ECB'S DRAGHI MADE "WHATEVER IT TAKES" COMMENTS
01 July 2015, 12:58
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -WOULD BE SURPRISING IF ASSET MANAGERS' PRE-CRISIS
LIQUIDITY APPROACH IS STILL APPROPRIATE
01 July 2015, 12:59
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -CIRCUMSTANCES FOR BOE NOW BEARS "NO COMPARISON"
WITH SITUATION WHEN ECB'S DRAGHI MADE "WHATEVER IT TAKES" COMMENTS
01 July 2015, 12:58
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -WOULD BE SURPRISING IF ASSET MANAGERS' PRE-CRISIS
LIQUIDITY APPROACH IS STILL APPROPRIATE
01 July 2015, 12:57
Euro area final manufacturing PMIs were confirmed at 52.5 in June, posting
the highest reading since April 2014. Over the month, better output supported
the headline rise, while new orders and employment remained broadly stable (at
52.7 and 51.7, respectively). It is worth highlighting that the improvement in
manufacturing confidence was broad based in terms of countries, with Germany
rebounding and France recovering from low levels- up above the 50 mark for the
first time in more than a year - while Spain, Italy and Ireland moderated from
multi-year highs, as expected, says Barclays.
Greece was unsurprisingly the worst performer, with confidence tumbling to 46.9, the weakest print in 2 years. According to Barclays, today's data signalled that the moderate recovery in euro area manufacturing activity remains on track (the PMI average for Q2 is the highest since Q2 14).
Greece was unsurprisingly the worst performer, with confidence tumbling to 46.9, the weakest print in 2 years. According to Barclays, today's data signalled that the moderate recovery in euro area manufacturing activity remains on track (the PMI average for Q2 is the highest since Q2 14).
01 July 2015, 12:56
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS SECOND LETTER FROM TSIPRAS HAS ACHIEVED NO CLARITY
01 July 2015, 12:56
ITALY'S RENZI SAYS WE ARE IN A VERY DIFFICULT TRANSITION PERIOD, MORE FOR
GREECE THAN FOR EUROPE
01 July 2015, 12:55
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS WE ARE IN A COMPLETELY NEW SITUATION WITH GREECE, WE
ARE ALWAYS READY TO TALK
01 July 2015, 12:54
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS GREECE HAS TO MAKE CLEAR WHAT IT WANTS
01 July 2015, 12:54
BOJ'S FUNO: NATURAL FOR BOJ BOARD MEETINGS TO RESULT IN SPLIT VOTE, PURPOSE
OF HOLDING A MEETING IS TO EXCHANGE VARIOUS DIFFERENT OPINIONS
01 July 2015, 12:54
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS THERE IS NO BASIS TO HAVE SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS WITH
GREECE AT MOMENT
01 July 2015, 12:53
BANK OF ENGLAND'S BAILEY - LEVEL OF BOE ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO WHEN CYPRUS
IMPOSED CAPITAL CONTROLS 2 YEARS AGO
01 July 2015, 12:53
ITALY'S RENZI SAYS TSIPRAS LAUNCHED REFERENDUM FOR POLITICAL REASONS, IT IS
HIGHLY RISKY
01 July 2015, 12:52
GREEK PM IN LETTER ASKS TO KEEP TAX BREAKS FOR ISLANDS, CHANGES TO PENSION
REFORM PLAN- GOVT OFFICIAL
01 July 2015, 12:52
GREEK GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS PM TSIPRAS SENT LETTER TO LENDERS ACCEPTING
CREDITORS' PROPOSAL WITH SOME CHANGES
01 July 2015, 12:52
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -WE HAVE STEPPED UP OUR DEGREE OF SCRUTINY OF GREEK
BANKS IN BRITAIN
01 July 2015, 12:51
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS OLD EFSF PROGRAMME FOR GREECE HAS EXPIRED, NOW A NEW
ESM PROGRAMME WOULD BE NEEDED WITH DIFFERENT CONDITIONS
01 July 2015, 12:51
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -I HAVE ATTENDED GOVERNMENT 'COBRA' SECURITY
MEETINGS ON GREECE
01 July 2015, 12:50
BOJ'S FUNO: JAPAN MAKING PROGRESS IN ENDING DEFLATION BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY
EMERGED FROM IT YET
01 July 2015, 12:50
BOJ'S FUNO: IMPORTANT TO ACHIEVE BOJ'S 2 PCT INFLATION TARGET BUT MUST ALSO
LOOK AT WHAT SHOULD COME NEXT, SUCH AS BOOSTING ECONOMY'S PROFITABILITY
01 July 2015, 12:51
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -I HAVE ATTENDED GOVERNMENT 'COBRA' SECURITY
MEETINGS ON GREECE
01 July 2015, 12:50
BOJ'S FUNO: JAPAN MAKING PROGRESS IN ENDING DEFLATION BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY
EMERGED FROM IT YET
01 July 2015, 12:49
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -SO FAR THINGS ARE PROCEEDING AS ONE WOULD HOPE IN
STERLING MARKETS
01 July 2015, 12:49
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -IN MEDIUM TERM MUCH NEEDS TO BE DONE TO REINFORCE
INTEGRITY OF EURO
01 July 2015, 12:48
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -GREEK EXIT FROM EURO ZONE IS A POSSIBILITY WE HAVE
PREPARED FOR
01 July 2015, 12:48
BOJ'S FUNO: FX MOVES ARE A RISK FACTOR FOR COMPANIES SO COMPANIES NEED TO BE
ABLE TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABLE GROWTH REGARDLESS OF THESE RISKS
01 July 2015, 12:47
GERMANY'S SCHAEUBLE SAYS NOTHING CHANGED IN FACT THAT THERE WAS NO AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GREECE, CREDITORS BY MIDNIGHT
01 July 2015, 12:47
BOJ'S FUNO: ACHIEVING 2 PCT INFLATION IS IMPORTANT BUT ALSO NEED TO WATCH
WHETHER COMPANIES ARE BOOSTING PROFITABILITY, COMPETITIVENESS
R1: 1.25566
R2: 1.25701
R3: 1.26671
Support Levels:
S1: 1.2436 (Kijun-Sen level)
S2: 1.2380 (55 EMA)
S3: 1.2272(61.8% fibo of 1.2125 to 1.24938)
01 July 2015, 12:47
- USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2497. Momentum remains
bullish.
- Major resistance is seen at 1.2562. Breaks above could take the pair to
1.2602 levels.
- It is good to buy on dips around 1.2450-60, TP: 1.2560, SL: 1.2430
R1: 1.25566
R2: 1.25701
R3: 1.26671
Support Levels:
S1: 1.2436 (Kijun-Sen level)
S2: 1.2380 (55 EMA)
S3: 1.2272(61.8% fibo of 1.2125 to 1.24938)
01 July 2015, 12:46
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -PERSISTENT IMPACT FROM GREECE ON RISK APPETITE IN
UK IS UNLIKELY
01 July 2015, 12:46
BOJ'S FUNO: ECONOMY IS A LIVING THING, AFFECTED BY VARIOUS FACTORS SUCH AS
CRUDE OIL PRICES, U.S. MONETARY POLICY
01 July 2015, 12:45
GERMAN FIN MIN SCHAEUBLE SAYS SEES NO UNCONTROLLABLE RISKS TO GERMAN BUDGET
DUE TO CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS, INCLUDING FROM GREECE
01 July 2015, 12:43
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY -FINANCIAL POLICY COMMITTEE HAD DISCUSSION LATEST
GREEK DEVELOPMENTS
01 July 2015, 12:43
BOJ'S FUNO: MUST WATCH FOR DRAWBACKS OF BOJ'S STIMULUS POLICY
01 July 2015, 12:40
BOJ'S FUNO: HOPEFUL OF PROSPECTS FOR JAPAN'S ECONOMY, WHICH IS EMERGING FROM
DIFFICULT PERIODS AFTER LEHMAN CRISIS, DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKE
01 July 2015, 12:39
GERMAN 5-YEAR BOBL ATTRACTS BIDS WORTH LESS THAN AMOUNT OFFERED, TECHNICALLY
UNCOVERED
01 July 2015, 12:39
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - BOE CONCERNED THAT ADJUSTMENT IN RISK APPETITE
LEADS TO PERMANENT DISLOCATION IN FINANCING
01 July 2015, 12:39
BOJ'S FUNO: JAPAN FIRMS, ECONOMY MUST BECOME RESILIENT TO FX VOLATILITY
01 July 2015, 12:38
U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES RISE AFTER FT SAYS GREEK PM WRITES TO ACCEPT
CREDITORS' BAILOUT OFFER, WITH CONDITIONS
01 July 2015, 12:38
BOJ'S FUNO: FX LEVELS ARE DECIDED BY MARKETS
01 July 2015, 12:38
ITALY'S RENZI SAYS WRONG TO SEE EUROPE AS BULWARK AGAINST RUSSIA, RUSSIA MUST
BE PARTNER IN FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM
01 July 2015, 12:37
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - CHINESE POLICYMAKERS NOW FACE A CHALLENGING
BALANCING ACT
01 July 2015, 12:37
NEW BOJ BOARD MEMBER FUNO: VERY WORRIED ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS IN GREECE
01 July 2015, 12:37
Greek swing comments, making it very difficult for traders to take positions,
as heavy swings on both sides are hitting the stop losses.
According to latest update -
Euro bounced back. As high as 1.117 after the news, however currently at 1.113 as traders remain cautious over Greece.
According to latest update -
- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will accept all his bailout creditors' conditions that were placed on the table by Jean Claude Juncker, over the weekend, with only minor changes according to a letter sent by him to European commission.
- Greek Prime Minister has also requested a third new bailout package from European lenders of € 29.1 billion and an extension of the previous bailout, which as of now stands expired since the request was rejected by Euro group finance ministers.
- As of now Mr. Tsipras stands ready to accept all bailout condition including value added tax, only change he is requesting is 30% discount to Greek Islands since they remain far from mainland supply.
- On the issue of pension reform, Mr. Tsipras requests that changes to move the retirement age to 67 by 2022 begin in October, rather than immediately.
- He accepts to remove solidarity grant to poor pensioners by December 2019, but at slower pace.
Euro bounced back. As high as 1.117 after the news, however currently at 1.113 as traders remain cautious over Greece.
01 July 2015, 12:36
GERMANY SELLS NEW 0.25 PCT BOBL AT 100.4 AND ABOVE, BID/COVER 1.0 (PVS 1.6) -
BUBA
01 July 2015, 12:36
GERMANY SELLS 3.205 BLN EUROS OF NEW 0.25 PCT, 5-YR BOBL, AVG YIELD 0.17 PCT
(PVS 0.09 PCT) - BUBA
01 July 2015, 12:36
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - UK GROWTH SOLID
01 July 2015, 12:35
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - WHILE BANKS' RESILIENCE HAS RISEN, RISKS HAVE
SHIFTED TO MARKETS THAT CONNECT THEM
01 July 2015, 12:35
ITALY'S RENZI SAYS GREEK REFERENDUM IS ABOUT DRACHMA VS EURO
01 July 2015, 12:35
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - WILL TAKE ANY ACTIONS REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD
FINANCIAL STABILITY TO UK
01 July 2015, 12:35
TSIPRAS IN LETTER ASKED TO KEEP VAT DISCOUNT FOR ISLANDS, DELAY INCREASE IN
PENSION AGE, DELAY PHASE OUT OF SOLIDARITY GRANT TO PENSIONERS -FT
01 July 2015, 12:34
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - UK ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EXPOSURE TO THE EURO
AREA IS CONSIDERABLE
01 July 2015, 12:34
BANK OF ENGLAND'S CARNEY - FOOTPRINT OF GREEK BANKS IN THE UK IS TINY
01 July 2015, 12:34
ITALY'S RENZI SAYS POLICY FOCUSED ON SAVINGS DOES NOT HELP EUROPE ADVANCE
01 July 2015, 12:34
FINANCIAL TIMES SAYS GREEK PM TSIPRAS WRITES TO ACCEPT CREDITORS' BAILOUT
OFFER, WITH SEVERAL CONDITIONS
01 July 2015, 12:33
BOE - UK BANKS TO FACE REGULAR TESTING OF RESILIENCE TO CYBER ATTACKS
01 July 2015, 12:33
BOE - HOUSING MARKET REMAINS A MAJOR RISK, DISTRIBUTION OF DEBT HAS IMPROVED
01 July 2015, 12:32
BOE - BANK MISCONDUCT POSES SYSTEMIC RISK, WILL REVIEW ADEQUACY OF BANKS'
ESTIMATES OF FUTURE FINES IN 2015 STRESS TESTS
01 July 2015, 12:32
BOE - LARGE UK CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT A RISK, BUT DRIVEN BY LONG-TERM FLOWS
NOT SHORT-TERM LENDING
01 July 2015, 12:31
BOE - REGULATORS TO LOOK CLOSER AT INVESTMENT FUNDS' AND UK COMPANIES'
EXPOSURE TO LIQUIDITY RISK
01 July 2015, 12:31
BOE - FINANCIAL POLICY COMMITTEE TO BROADEN FOCUS BEYOND BANKS TO INCLUDE
FINANCIAL MARKET RISKS
01 July 2015, 12:31
BOE - UK AUTHORITIES WILL TAKE ANY ACTIONS NEEDED TO SAFEGUARD FINANCIAL
STABILITY IN BRITAIN
01 July 2015, 12:31
BOE - ALERT TO POSSIBILITY THAT DEEPENING OF GREEK CRISIS COULD PROMPT
BROADER REASSESSMENT OF MARKET RISK
01 July 2015, 12:30
BANK OF ENGLAND - OUTLOOK FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY HAS WORSENED, DUE LARGELY
TO PAST DAYS' GREEK EVENTS
01 July 2015, 12:30
ROMANIA CENTRAL BANK SAYS KEEPS MINIMUM RESERVE REQUIREMENTS FOR LEU AND FX
LIABILITIES
01 July 2015, 12:30
ROMANIA'S CENTRAL BANK SAYS LEAVES KEY INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.75 PCT
01 July 2015, 12:30
EU COMMISSION'S SEFCOVIC SAYS THERE IS ENOUGH PHYSICAL REVERSE FLOW TO FILL
UKRAINE'S STORAGE
01 July 2015, 12:30
ROMANIA'S CENTRAL BANK SAYS LEAVES KEY INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.75 PCT
01 July 2015, 12:30
EU COMMISSION'S SEFCOVIC SAYS THERE IS ENOUGH PHYSICAL REVERSE FLOW TO FILL
UKRAINE'S STORAGE
01 July 2015, 12:28
EURO ZONE OFFICIAL SAYS NEW BAILOUT PROGRAMME FOR GREECE THEORETICALLY DOABLE
BEFORE JULY 20 PAYMENT DEADLINE TO ECB
01 July 2015, 12:26
ITALY'S RENZI, ON REFERENDUM, THE QUESTION IS WHETHER DRACHMA WILL BE
INTRODUCED OR NOT
01 July 2015, 12:26
ITALY'S RENZI SAYS GREEK GOVERNMENT MUST PURSUE STRUCTURAL REFORMS
01 July 2015, 12:25
BERLIN - ITALY'S RENZI SAYS RULES ALSO NEED TO BE ENFORCED IN GREECE
01 July 2015, 12:24
ADMIRAL MARKETS: SHORT USDJPY, ENTRY 123.20, STOP LOSS 124.05, TARGET 121.50
01 July 2015, 12:24
BERLIN - ITALY'S RENZI SAYS NEGOTIATING HARD TO GET A DEAL WITH GREECE
1 July 2015, 12:22
Euro area finance ministers decided to take up Greece’s new aid bid for the
second time at 15:30 p.m. Brussels time Wednesday after Greece's request for a
second bailout was dismissed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
European leaders are awaiting signs that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to compromise as his country buckles under capital controls and fails to make its International Monetary Fund payment.
Merkel dismissed Greece's request for a new two-year bailout program to tide over a cash-strapped economy.
With Greece’s stay in the euro club at stake, finance ministers in the 19-nation bloc are scrambling for a solution to pull Greece away from the precipice after more than five years of crisis fighting and two bailouts.
Tsipras announced the July 5 referendum on budget cuts to be a vote against austerity, but analysts mostly view it as an attempt to remain in the euro. The outcome could determine whether the European Central Bank pulls a financial lifeline keeping the economy on life support.
Merkel said there was “absolutely nothing” to talk about before Sunday, Bloomberg reports.
There are signs that the gap is narrowing.
Eurozone finance ministers will hold a Eurogroup conference call on Greece at 1530 GMT on Wednesday, pushing it back by six hours at the request of several ministers, the group’s spokesman said.
As three officials with knowledge of the matter said to Bloomberg, at first glance, a plan devoid of any economic-reform measures appeared to be a non-starter.
“The request from Greece appears designed to keep the region somewhat off-balance, and to create the impression that Tsipras is searching for an imaginative solution,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London.
“Any deal struck at this stage is going to be on the Eurogroup’s terms.”
According to an official speaking on condition of anonymity, Greece has agreed to provide more information and said it might change its referendum terms and recommendation.
Barclays wrote in a note:
“With no fundamental change in the institutions’ offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a ‘No’ vote, as he announced last Friday.”
“This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a ‘Yes’ vote. The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras’s future.”
In Washington, the IMF is thinking on its next move after the first missed payment since the institution was created during World War II.
Its board will probably grant a Greek request for an extension.
Meanwhile, European markets opened higher:
the EURO STOXX 50 jumped 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.06%, while Germany’s DAX 30 jumped 1.08%.
London's FTSE 100 climbed 0.88%, as U.K. lenders tracked their European peers higher.
Financial stocks surged, as French lenders BNP Paribas and Societe Generale gained 0.78% and 1.34%, while Germany's Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank rose 0.17% and 0.26%.
In the U.S., equity markets are expected to open higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.57% gain, S&P 500 futures showed a 0.58% increase, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.57% rise.
European leaders are awaiting signs that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to compromise as his country buckles under capital controls and fails to make its International Monetary Fund payment.
Merkel dismissed Greece's request for a new two-year bailout program to tide over a cash-strapped economy.
With Greece’s stay in the euro club at stake, finance ministers in the 19-nation bloc are scrambling for a solution to pull Greece away from the precipice after more than five years of crisis fighting and two bailouts.
Tsipras announced the July 5 referendum on budget cuts to be a vote against austerity, but analysts mostly view it as an attempt to remain in the euro. The outcome could determine whether the European Central Bank pulls a financial lifeline keeping the economy on life support.
Merkel said there was “absolutely nothing” to talk about before Sunday, Bloomberg reports.
There are signs that the gap is narrowing.
Eurozone finance ministers will hold a Eurogroup conference call on Greece at 1530 GMT on Wednesday, pushing it back by six hours at the request of several ministers, the group’s spokesman said.
As three officials with knowledge of the matter said to Bloomberg, at first glance, a plan devoid of any economic-reform measures appeared to be a non-starter.
“The request from Greece appears designed to keep the region somewhat off-balance, and to create the impression that Tsipras is searching for an imaginative solution,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London.
“Any deal struck at this stage is going to be on the Eurogroup’s terms.”
According to an official speaking on condition of anonymity, Greece has agreed to provide more information and said it might change its referendum terms and recommendation.
Barclays wrote in a note:
“With no fundamental change in the institutions’ offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a ‘No’ vote, as he announced last Friday.”
“This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a ‘Yes’ vote. The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras’s future.”
In Washington, the IMF is thinking on its next move after the first missed payment since the institution was created during World War II.
Its board will probably grant a Greek request for an extension.
Meanwhile, European markets opened higher:
the EURO STOXX 50 jumped 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.06%, while Germany’s DAX 30 jumped 1.08%.
London's FTSE 100 climbed 0.88%, as U.K. lenders tracked their European peers higher.
Financial stocks surged, as French lenders BNP Paribas and Societe Generale gained 0.78% and 1.34%, while Germany's Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank rose 0.17% and 0.26%.
In the U.S., equity markets are expected to open higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to a 0.57% gain, S&P 500 futures showed a 0.58% increase, while the Nasdaq 100 futures indicated a 0.57% rise.
01 July 2015, 12:22
EU COMMISSION'S SEFCOVIC SAYS UKRAINE STORAGE NEEDS ANOTHER 7 BILLION CUBIC
METRES TO BUILD STOCKS TO 19 BCM FOR WINTER SEASON
01 July 2015, 12:21
INDONESIAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS SEES BUDGET DEFICIT AT 2.23 PCT OF GDP IN
2015
01 July 2015, 12:20
EU COMMISSION'S SEFCOVIC SAYS DIFFERENCES WERE OVER HOW LONG ANY DEAL COULD
BE, LEGAL NATURE, PRICE MECHANISMS
01 July 2015, 12:19
CORRECTED-INDONESIAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS SEES FULL YEAR 2015 GDP GROWTH AT
5.2 PCT (NOT 5.5 PCT)
01 July 2015, 12:18
INDONESIAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS SEES RUPIAH AVERAGING 13,100 TO THE DOLLAR
THIS YEAR
01 July 2015, 12:17
Oil prices find themselves under pressure this morning and are thus shedding
most of yesterday's gains again. Brent has dropped to $62.5 per barrel and WTI
to below $58.5 per barrel. Prices were given a boost yesterday amid hopes of a
last-minute deal being struck in the debt dispute with Greece. These hopes were
not fulfilled, however.
What is more, the oil market is being literally flooded with OPEC crude oil at present. According to Reuters and Bloomberg surveys, OPEC significantly scaled up its oil output again in June.
Reuters reports a 300,000 barrel increase to a 3year high of 31.6 million barrels per day, while Bloomberg even claims a rise of 744,000 to 32.1 million barrels per day.
In other words, OPEC is producing well in excess of its own target of 30 million barrels per day. Iraq and Saudi Arabia in particular were responsible for the expansion of supply, both countries having stepped up their output to a record level.
The oversupply on the oil market thus remains considerable. The IEA estimates the call on OPEC in H2 at an average 30.2 million barrels per day. If the nuclear negotiations with Iran are brought to a positive conclusion, there is also the "threat" of additional oil reaching the market from Iran.
Negotiations were extended by one week yesterday to 7 July. There are optimistic signs that an agreement could indeed be reached.
What is more, the oil market is being literally flooded with OPEC crude oil at present. According to Reuters and Bloomberg surveys, OPEC significantly scaled up its oil output again in June.
Reuters reports a 300,000 barrel increase to a 3year high of 31.6 million barrels per day, while Bloomberg even claims a rise of 744,000 to 32.1 million barrels per day.
In other words, OPEC is producing well in excess of its own target of 30 million barrels per day. Iraq and Saudi Arabia in particular were responsible for the expansion of supply, both countries having stepped up their output to a record level.
The oversupply on the oil market thus remains considerable. The IEA estimates the call on OPEC in H2 at an average 30.2 million barrels per day. If the nuclear negotiations with Iran are brought to a positive conclusion, there is also the "threat" of additional oil reaching the market from Iran.
Negotiations were extended by one week yesterday to 7 July. There are optimistic signs that an agreement could indeed be reached.
01 July 2015, 12:16
EU COMMISSION'S SEFCOVIC SAYS AIMING FOR ANOTHER POLITICAL MEETING IN
SEPTEMBER
01 July 2015, 12:15
EU COMMISSION'S SEFCOVIC SAYS IN TOTALLY DIFFERENT GAS SITUATION FROM
PREVIOUSLY, NO RISK TO EU SUPPLIES DESPITE FAILURE OF RUSSIA, UKRAINE TALKS
01 July 2015, 12:13
CHINESE PREMIER SAYS CHINA HAS MANY TOOLS IN ITS TOOLBOX TO DEAL WITH
SLOWDOWN, TO TAKE APPROPRIATE MEASURES AT APPROPRIATE TIME
01 July 2015, 12:09
CHINESE PREMIER CONFIDENT CHINA TO ACHIEVE TARGET OF AROUND 7 PCT GDP GROWTH
FOR THIS YEAR
01 July 2015, 12:09
EURO TRIMS LOSSES AGAINST DOLLAR, TURNS HIGHER ON THE DAY VERSUS STERLING
01 July 2015, 12:09
TRADERS CITE FT REPORT THAT GREEK PM TSIPRAS CONCEDES ON ALMOST ALL POINTS IN
NEW LETTER TO CREDITORS
01 July 2015, 12:07
INDONESIAN C.BANK GOV SAYS GREECE CRISIS IS "QUITE WORRYING" BUT IMPACT ON
INDONESIA WON'T BE SIGNIFICANT
01 July 2015, 12:07
EURO STOXX VOLATILITY INDEX FALLS 1.72 POINTS
01 July 2015, 12:07
SPANISH, ITALIAN, PORTUGUESE 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS EXTEND FALLS TO DAY'S LOWS
01 July 2015, 12:05
GERMAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELDS RISE 3 BPS TO DAY'S HIGH OF 0.81 PCT
01 July 2015, 12:05
The figures published by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) yesterday
evening gave a renewed boost to the rally enjoyed by grains and oilseeds. US
stocks of corn and soybeans as per 1 June were reported as being significantly
lower than observers had anticipated, notes Commerzbank.
Admittedly, stocks are noticeably higher than last year following the record US crops of 2014, yet unexpectedly strong demand has limited the increase in stock levels. The USDA's acreage report now shows a more pronounced shift from corn- to soybean-growing.
At the end of March, the USDA had forecast a surprisingly minor shift on the basis of surveys among farmers. That said, the estimate is only provisional as the wet weather has severely delayed the planting of soybeans, and indeed of cotton. Although the reported wheat acreage and stocks were both higher than expected, the wheat price also gained by a further 5.5%, says Commerzbank. This means that wheat on the CBOT has soared by almost 18% within just four days of trading - its sharpest price rise in such a short space of time in nearly five years. This is due to short covering and concerns about crop outages and reduced quality due to rain in the US and dry conditions in the EU and Canada.
Admittedly, stocks are noticeably higher than last year following the record US crops of 2014, yet unexpectedly strong demand has limited the increase in stock levels. The USDA's acreage report now shows a more pronounced shift from corn- to soybean-growing.
At the end of March, the USDA had forecast a surprisingly minor shift on the basis of surveys among farmers. That said, the estimate is only provisional as the wet weather has severely delayed the planting of soybeans, and indeed of cotton. Although the reported wheat acreage and stocks were both higher than expected, the wheat price also gained by a further 5.5%, says Commerzbank. This means that wheat on the CBOT has soared by almost 18% within just four days of trading - its sharpest price rise in such a short space of time in nearly five years. This is due to short covering and concerns about crop outages and reduced quality due to rain in the US and dry conditions in the EU and Canada.
01 July 2015, 12:05
INDONESIAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS HAS COLLECTED 37 PCT OF TARGETTED 2015 TAX
REVENUE
01 July 2015, 12:02
INDONESIAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS SEES H1 GDP GROWTH AT 4.9 PCT
01 July 2015, 12:00
Gold dipped for a time to a 3½-week low of $1,170 per troy ounce yesterday
but is trading slightly above this level again this morning.
In euro terms, gold fell at times to €1,040 per troy ounce. As already announced by the Greek government, Greece failed to make its payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As such, Greece is classed with immediate effect as insolvent and is also not permitted to service other creditors due to the IMF's preferred creditor status.
The second EU aid programme also expired yesterday, and the ECB had already frozen its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for Greek banks on Sunday. National bankruptcy is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid. The Eurogroup plans today to discuss Greece's request for two years of support from the EU bailout fund, the ESM.
The outcome of this Sunday's referendum will doubtless determine to a major extent whether Greece exits the Eurozone. According to a survey, 46% of Greeks would currently vote against the conditions imposed by the country's creditors, while 37% would vote in favournotes Commerzbank. The subject of Greece is overshadowing all other news stories. As published yesterday, the core inflation rate in the Eurozone was 0.8% in June, which is somewhat lower than in the previous month. This should go some way to dampening the inflation expectations on the markets and should also reduce the attractiveness of gold as protection against inflation, says Commerzbank. Palladium gained $20 for a time this morning to reach $695 per troy ounce but has been unable to maintain this level. A countermovement following the sharp price fall in recent weeks is overdue, however.
In euro terms, gold fell at times to €1,040 per troy ounce. As already announced by the Greek government, Greece failed to make its payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As such, Greece is classed with immediate effect as insolvent and is also not permitted to service other creditors due to the IMF's preferred creditor status.
The second EU aid programme also expired yesterday, and the ECB had already frozen its emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for Greek banks on Sunday. National bankruptcy is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid. The Eurogroup plans today to discuss Greece's request for two years of support from the EU bailout fund, the ESM.
The outcome of this Sunday's referendum will doubtless determine to a major extent whether Greece exits the Eurozone. According to a survey, 46% of Greeks would currently vote against the conditions imposed by the country's creditors, while 37% would vote in favournotes Commerzbank. The subject of Greece is overshadowing all other news stories. As published yesterday, the core inflation rate in the Eurozone was 0.8% in June, which is somewhat lower than in the previous month. This should go some way to dampening the inflation expectations on the markets and should also reduce the attractiveness of gold as protection against inflation, says Commerzbank. Palladium gained $20 for a time this morning to reach $695 per troy ounce but has been unable to maintain this level. A countermovement following the sharp price fall in recent weeks is overdue, however.
01 July 2015, 06:12
- Equity markets starting to calm and GREXIT fears starting to recede
- JPY has been major beneficiary from market turmoil this week
- If European equity and bond markets calm today USD/JPY could drift elevated
- Resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci of 124.38/121.93 move at 122.87
- Key resistance is found at 123.15/20 levels
01 July 2015, 06:03
- Pair remains heavy on FDI sales, bullish on economic outlook
- Dips below 60.60 unlikely on intervention fears, Increased selling pressure in EUR
- INR NDFs traded btw 63.91-64.01 range overnight, closed 63.91-97 in NY
- June manufacturing PMI eyed at 0500GMT, Previous 52.6
- India April-may fiscal deficit trln, 37.5% of government estimate for FY16
01 July 2015, 06:00
INDONESIA JUN NIKKEI PMI INCREASE TO 47.8 VS PREV 47.1
01 July 2015, 05:58
MALAYSIA JUNE PMI AT 32-MONTH LOW OF 47.6 VS 49.5 IN MAY - MARKIT
01 July 2015, 05:50
BOJ offers to lend trln of JGBs on spot basis through 7/2 as a secondary
source of JGBs (Offer in the morning)
01 July 2015, 05:50
- Tight Asian range opened -0.75%, which negated Monday's bullish outside day
- Momentum studies conflict, 5, 10 & 20 dma's edge lower with recent trend
- Initial support levels at 0.7075 and 0.6989
- Near term resistance at 0.7126 and 0.7166 levels
01 July 2015, 05:17
JAPAN CHIEF GOVT SPOKESMAN: JAPAN GOVERNMENT TO STAY IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH
BOJ OVER GREECE
01 July 2015, 05:02
South Korea's inflation ticked higher to 0.7% y/y in June (May: 0.5%; April:
0.4%), in line with consensus but below the forecast (0.8%). The pickup is
consistent with the view that inflation bottomed in March-April at 0.4%. Similar
to May, the increase was largely driven by food prices on the back of the severe
drought.
Indeed, the Korea Meteorological Administration said on 15 June that accumulated rainfall YTD in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and Gangwon-do provinces was only half of an average year. The oil drag remained in place, but the distortion has eased given that the retail pump price has rebounded 12.2% since February's low.
All told, there is still no sign of deflation as core inflation was steady at 2.0% y/y (May: 2.1%; Apr: 2.0%). This came from a steady contribution from services inflation, which added 0.95pp to the headline inflation (May: 0.92; Apr: 0.93).
Barclays notes:
Indeed, the Korea Meteorological Administration said on 15 June that accumulated rainfall YTD in Seoul, Gyeonggi-do and Gangwon-do provinces was only half of an average year. The oil drag remained in place, but the distortion has eased given that the retail pump price has rebounded 12.2% since February's low.
All told, there is still no sign of deflation as core inflation was steady at 2.0% y/y (May: 2.1%; Apr: 2.0%). This came from a steady contribution from services inflation, which added 0.95pp to the headline inflation (May: 0.92; Apr: 0.93).
Barclays notes:
- We expect inflation to start rebounding in H2 to an average of 1.3% on account of stabilised oil prices and potentially higher food prices on the back of warmer and drier weather conditions.
- The recent MERS outbreak may pose some downside pressure to the core measure in July as retailers offer discounts to attract shoppers, but we expect any distortion to be transitory and contained.
- We maintain our full year inflation forecast at 0.9% for 2015.
01 July 2015, 05:00
VIETNAM'S JUNE PMI FALLS TO 3-MTH LOW AT 52.2; NEW EXPORT ORDERS SLIDE
01 July 2015, 04:54
CHINA'S MAIN STOCK INDEXES REVERSE EARLY LOSSES, MOVE INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY
01 July 2015, 04:40
S.KOREA JUNE PMI NEW EXPORT ORDERS FALLS TO 47.6 VS 47.9 IN MAY - MARKIT
01 July 2015, 04:40
SOUTH KOREA JUN NIKKEI MARKIT MFG PMI DECREASE TO 46.1 VS PREV 47.8
01 July 2015, 04:35
CHINA'S YUAN OPENS TRADE AT 6.2020 PER DOLLAR VS LAST CLOSE AT 6.2010
01 July 2015, 04:32
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX DOWN NEARLY 2 PCT
01 July 2015, 04:30
AUSTRALIA MAY PRIVATE HOUSE APPROVALS* DECREASE TO -8.4 % VS PREV 4.7 %
01 July 2015, 04:30
AUSTRALIA MAY BUILDING APPROVALS* INCREASE TO +2.4 % (FCAST 1.0 %) VS PREV
-4.4 %
01 July 2015, 04:11
BOJ offers to buy 425 bln yen JGBs (Residual maturity of 3YR to 5YR) outright
from 7/3
01 July 2015, 04:11
BOJ offers to buy Y 70 bln JGBs (Residual maturity of up to 1YR) outright
from 7/3
01 July 2015, 04:01
MALAYSIA'S BENCHMARK INDEX OPENS 0.18 PCT HIGHER FOLLOWING FITCH OUTLOOK
REVISION
01 July 2015, 04:00
S.KOREA SAYS JUNE EXPORTS TO CHINA +0.8 PCT Y/Y, EXPORTS TO U.S. +10.9 PCT,
EXPORTS TO EU -4.3 PCT
01 July 2015, 03:51
U.S. URGES ECONOMIC REFORMS FOR GREECE AND FINANCING TO ACHIEVE DEBT
SUSTAINABILITY
01 July 2015, 03:49
U.S. SAYS WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE PARTIES TO PRESS FORWARD WITH
NEGOTIATIONS THAT PUT GREECE ON PATH TO GROWTH WITHIN EURO ZONE -U.S. TREASURY
01 July 2015, 03:38
CORRECTED-SINGAPORE Q2 PRIVATE HOME PRICES -0.9 PCT FROM Q1 (NOT FROM Q4)
-URA FLASH ESTIMATE
01 July 2015, 03:30
SINGAPORE Q2 PRIVATE HOME PRICES -0.9 PCT FROM Q4 -URA FLASH ESTIMATE
01 July 2015, 03:21
BOJ OFFICIAL: JAPAN BIG FIRMS' EXPECTED CAPEX RISE OF 9.3 PCT FOR FISCAL 2015
IS BIGGEST RISE SINCE FISCAL 2006
01 July 2015, 03:16
BOJ OFFICIAL: UPBEAT CAPEX PLANS SHOW MORE FIRMS INCREASING SPENDING TO BOOST
PRODUCTIVITY, RENOVATE PLANTS AND EQUIPMENT
01 July 2015, 03:10
MALAYSIAN RINGGIT RISES 1 PCT TO 3.7360 PER DOLLAR AFTER FITCH AFFIRMS CREDIT
RATING
01 July 2015, 03:09
AUSTRALIA'S S&P/ASX 200 INDEX UP 0.15 PCT AT 5,467.20 POINTS IN EARLY
TRADE
01 July 2015, 03:00
S.KOREA JUNE AVG EXPORTS PER WORKING DAY $2.00 BLN VS $2.07 BLN IN MAY
-REUTERS CALCULATIONS
01 July 2015, 03:00
SOUTH KOREA JUN EXPORT GROWTH PRELIM* INCREASE TO -1.8 % (FCAST -1.0 %) VS
PREV -10.9 %
01 July 2015, 03:00
SOUTH KOREA JUN IMPORT GROWTH PRELIM* INCREASE TO -13.6 % (FCAST -8.7 %) VS
PREV -15.4 %
01 July 2015, 03:00
SOUTH KOREA JUN TRADE BALANCE PRELIM* INCREASE TO +10.2 BLN $ VS PREV 6.30
BLN $
01 July 2015, 02:55
BOJ OFFICIAL: BIG NON-MANUFACTURERS INDEX IMPROVES FOR 3 STRAIGHT QTRS, HITS
HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2014
01 July 2015, 02:54
BOJ OFFICIAL: BIG MANUFACTURERS INDEX IMPROVES FIRST TIME IN 3 QUARTERS, HITS
HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MARCH 2014
01 July 2015, 02:53
BOJ TANKAN: JUNE ALL FIRMS FINANCIAL CONDITION INDEX +12 VS MARCH +12
01 July 2015, 02:53
BOJ TANKAN: JUNE BIG MANUFACTURERS' PRODUCTION CAPACITY INDEX +2 VS MARCH +3
01 July 2015, 02:53
BOJ TANKAN: JUNE ALL FIRMS EMPLOYMENT INDEX -15
01 July 2015, 02:53
BOJ TANKAN: JAPAN BIG MANUFACTURERS SEE FY2015/16 RECURRING PROFITS +0.8 PCT
01 July 2015, 02:51
BOJ TANKAN: JAPAN SMALL FIRMS SEE FY2015/16 CAPEX -15.7 PCT (REUTERS POLL:
-16.3)
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN SMALL NON-MF IDX INCREASE TO +4 (FCAST 5 ) VS PREV 3
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN SM NON-MF OUTLOOK DI INCREASE TO +1 (FCAST 3 ) VS PREV -1
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN ALL SM CAPEX EST INCREASE TO -15.7 % (FCAST -16.3 %) VS PREV
-21.2 %
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN BIG NON-MF IDX INCREASE TO +23 (FCAST 22 ) VS PREV 19
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN BIG NON-MF OUTLOOK DI INCREASE TO +21 (FCAST 23 ) VS PREV 17
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN ALL BIG CAPEX EST INCREASE TO +9.3 % (FCAST 5.2 %) VS PREV
-1.2 %
01 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN Q2 TANKAN SMALL MF IDX DECREASE TO 0 (FCAST 1 ) VS PREV 1
01 July 2015, 02:30
AUSTRALIA JUN AIG MANUFACTURING INDEX DECREASE TO 44.2 VS PREV 52.30
01 July 2015, 02:23
FED’S BULLARD SAYS PROBLEMS IN GREECE WILL PROMPT FLIGHT TO SAFETY FROM
INVESTORS AND BE BULLISH FOR U.S. ECONOMY
01 July 2015, 02:23
FED’S BULLARD SAYS EUROPE’S BOND-BUYING PROGRAM WILL ALLOW ECB TO KEEP
VOLATILITY LOW IN WAKE OF GREECE DEFAULT
01 July 2015, 02:23
FED’S BULLARD SAYS FED RATE HIKE IS “VERY MUCH IN PLAY FOR SEPTEMBER” THOUGH
WILL BE ON THE TABLE IN JULY AS WELL
01 July 2015, 02:00
SOUTH KOREA JUN CPI GROWTH* DECREASE TO 0.0 % (FCAST 0.1 %) VS PREV 0.3 %
01 July 2015, 01:57
WHITE HOUSE SAYS OBAMA TO DELIVER A STATEMENT ON CUBA IN THE WHITE HOUSE ROSE
GARDEN ON WEDNESDAY AT 1100 ET (1500 GMT)
01 July 2015, 01:55
CUBA SAYS WILL RECEIVE CHIEF OF U.S. DIPLOMATIC MISSION IN HAVANA ON
WEDNESDAY TO RECEIVE NOTE FROM OBAMA ON RESTORING DIPLOMATIC TIES
01 July 2015, 01:55
BOJ: banks' reserve balance at 174.7 trln at end of day
01 July 2015, 01:55
BOJ: Current account balance at 229.8 trln at end of day
01 July 2015, 01:48
Canada's April GDP release was particularly disappointing (-0.1%m/m, cons
+0.1%). Within the sector breakdown, mining, oil & gas was a key source of
weakness, partly due to "maintenance shutdown and production difficulties"
according to StatsCan.
More importantly, the April number makes the BoC's 1.8% projection for Q2 GDP as a whole essentially unachievable which calls into question its forecast for the output gap closing by the "end of 2016".
Today's outcome places an even greater importance on the upcoming MPR - markets are now pricing 17bps of cuts by year end (up from 5bps) and economists agree that the risk has risen substantially and could rise further depending on the June employment report and Business Outlook Survey (both due next week).
More importantly, the April number makes the BoC's 1.8% projection for Q2 GDP as a whole essentially unachievable which calls into question its forecast for the output gap closing by the "end of 2016".
Today's outcome places an even greater importance on the upcoming MPR - markets are now pricing 17bps of cuts by year end (up from 5bps) and economists agree that the risk has risen substantially and could rise further depending on the June employment report and Business Outlook Survey (both due next week).
01 July 2015, 01:44
FED’S BULLARD SAYS RISK OF CONTAGION FROM GREECE IS LOW
01 July 2015, 01:42
Market Roundup
EUR/USD
GBP/USD was unable to hold gains as Greek deadline approached and there was no resolution, Greece missed IMF payment deadline on Tuesday, decided to send in new proposal on Wed referendum odds are getting closer very fast cable traded in the range of 1.5700-1.5775 in New york session and it ended in New york session at 1. pair is set to resume bullish trend in the short term, To the upside the pair finds immediate resistance at 1.57750, And to the flipside immediate support can be found at 1.5704 .
AUD/USD
AUD/USD traded in tight range in Europe's morning session, AUD/USD tested 0.7660 support level and bounced back to reach 0.77241( June 30 high). During New York session earlier on softer Treasury yield, The pair rallied and pierced 200 HMA by reaching 0.7725 high but the gains faded quickly ,As AUD/USD dived below 0.7680. No further losses occurred in this pair as it recovered to 0.7705 late in theday.China's June Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI's may pose a big threat to AUD/USD in the Asian session on Wednesday. To the downside strong support lies at 0.7675 and to the upside strong resistance lies at 0.7714
NZD/USD
NZD/USD hit new lows were hit (0.6745) in the early New York session on follow through from Europe's morning. NZD/USD rallied to 0.6786 (June 29 low) but faltered when US economic data were released , there are no New Zealand data on Wednesday. But Chinese June Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI's can weaken NZD dollar further in the Asian session
- Fed's Fischer lag in impact of mon policy means Fed can't wait to raise int rates until inf/employment objectives reached
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem says Greece's stance must change for new bailout, to meet Wednesday
- Merkel says Germany can't discuss new plan before Greek vote (source)
- Germany's Merkel says door stands open for talks w/Greece, but program expires at midnight
- Germany's Schaeuble said he'd advise ECB not to raise liquidity to Greek banks-sources
- Germany's Schaeuble says Greek 'no' vote would not mean Grexit
- ECB's Nowotny - Greek failure to pay IMF not the same as default
- Greece FinMin says Greece will not Pay IMF Tuesday, hopes for a deal w/creditors
- Maltese PM says Greece would conditionally suspend bailout referendum
- Greece's chief negotiator Tsakalotos seeks flexibility from lenders in next days; sees referendum as part of negotiation process, not a substitute
- S&P says Ratings on four Greek banks lowered to 'SD' following restrictions imposed on deposits (Alpha Bank AE, Eurobank Ergasias S.A., National Bank of Greece S.A., Piraeus Bank S.A)
- US Chicago PMI Jun 49.4, f/c 50, 46.2-prev
- US Consumer Conf Jun 101.4, f/c 97.3, 94.6-prev
- CA GDP MM Apr -0.1%, f/c 0.1%, -0.20%-prev, weakness may hint at broad NorAm weakness
- Moody's says Puerto Rico debt restructuring study casts doubts on GO bond protections
- 23:30 AU AIG Manufacturing Index Jun 52.3-prev
- 01:30 AU Building Approvals* May f/c 1.00%,-4.40%-prev
- 23:50 JP Tankan Big Mf Idx Q2 f/c 12, 12-prev
- 23:50 JP Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI Q2 f/c 12, 10-prev
- 23:50 JP Tankan All Big Capex Est Q2 f/c 5.20%, -1.20%-prev
- 23:50 JP Tankan Small Mf Idx Q2 f/c 1, 1-prev
- 23:50 JP Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI Q2 f/c 1, 0-prev
- 23:50 JP Tankan All Sm Capex Est Q2 f/c -16.30%, -21.20%-prev
- 01:35 JP Manufacturing PMI Jun 49.9-prev
- 01:00 CN NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Jun 53.2-prev
- 01:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI* Jun f/c 50.3, 50.2-prev
- 01:45 CN HSBC Mfg PMI Final Jun 49.6-prev
- No Significant Events
EUR/USD
- EUR/USD was trading in choppy range in Europe's morning session, In the US sessions it neared mid-point of 1.1134-1.1206 range.Bullish pressure was applied in early NY session, As a result of weak US economic data, The Pair rallied & pierced 200-HMA, later it hit session high of 1.1245.
- USD rebounded after the comments by German Merkel that can't consult on new Greek proposal, The pair hit 1.1110 in the mid New york session,It neared 1.1165 and later 1.1145 for rest of session.Techical indicators 10& 21-DMAs,RSI were indicating bearish trend on daily chart, and daily cloud top dropping.
GBP/USD was unable to hold gains as Greek deadline approached and there was no resolution, Greece missed IMF payment deadline on Tuesday, decided to send in new proposal on Wed referendum odds are getting closer very fast cable traded in the range of 1.5700-1.5775 in New york session and it ended in New york session at 1. pair is set to resume bullish trend in the short term, To the upside the pair finds immediate resistance at 1.57750, And to the flipside immediate support can be found at 1.5704 .
AUD/USD
AUD/USD traded in tight range in Europe's morning session, AUD/USD tested 0.7660 support level and bounced back to reach 0.77241( June 30 high). During New York session earlier on softer Treasury yield, The pair rallied and pierced 200 HMA by reaching 0.7725 high but the gains faded quickly ,As AUD/USD dived below 0.7680. No further losses occurred in this pair as it recovered to 0.7705 late in theday.China's June Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI's may pose a big threat to AUD/USD in the Asian session on Wednesday. To the downside strong support lies at 0.7675 and to the upside strong resistance lies at 0.7714
NZD/USD
NZD/USD hit new lows were hit (0.6745) in the early New York session on follow through from Europe's morning. NZD/USD rallied to 0.6786 (June 29 low) but faltered when US economic data were released , there are no New Zealand data on Wednesday. But Chinese June Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI's can weaken NZD dollar further in the Asian session
01 July 2015, 01:36
IMF SAYS ENCOURAGES UKRAINE AND ITS CREDITORS TO CONTINUE EFFORTS TO REACH
AGREEMENT THAT MEETS FINANCING AND DEBT OBJECTIVES
01 July 2015, 01:14
IMF SAYS BOARD WILL CONSIDER GREEK REQUEST FOR EXTENSION IN DUE COURSE
01 July 2015, 01:14
IMF SAYS RECEIVED GREECE REQUEST FOR EXTENSION OF REPAYMENT
01 July 2015, 01:13
IMF CONFIRMS GREECE DOES NOT MAKE 1.5 BLN EURO REPAYMENT TO THE FUND
01 July 2015, 01:02
FED'S BULLARD SAYS TECH STOCK BUBBLE CONCERNS HAVE RESUMED, BUT COMPANIES IN
SECTOR ARE STRONGER THAN IN LATE 1990S
01 July 2015, 01:02
FED'S BULLARD SAYS LOW INTEREST RATES TEND TO FEED ASSET BUBBLES
01 July 2015, 00:51
WASHINGTON - BRAZIL'S PRESIDENT ROUSSEFF SAYS WANTS TO OPEN ECONOMY MORE
01 July 2015, 00:39
The working age population of the existing centers of global economic
activity has stopped rising and begun to fall. All else equal (including in
particular productivity growth and labor force participation), the implied
slowdown in the global labor force could subtract a full percentage point from
trend growth in the coming decade and a half, compared with the past 15
years.
But the effect of shrinking (and aging) populations on the global workforce could be mitigated by labor force participation of workers beyond the conventional working age (15-64) and by increased participation rates of the working age population. In the past decade, precisely this has happened in Japan and Germany, substantially mitigating the demographic shock.
In Japan, the most important drivers have been a high (and rising) participation rate of older workers and a substantial increase in participation by women in their prime working years (25-54). Female labor force participation in this age group now exceeds that of the US.
In Germany, the most important driver has been a sharp rise in labor force participation of the population near retirement age (55-64 years), from only 52% in 2005 to nearly 70% in 2014. It seems plausible that this is a response to the Hartz reforms of 2002-2005.
The US stands out as the only one of the countries in which participation of the prime working age population has declined. Adjusted for demography, the US participation rate is the lowest of the countries considered.
But the effect of shrinking (and aging) populations on the global workforce could be mitigated by labor force participation of workers beyond the conventional working age (15-64) and by increased participation rates of the working age population. In the past decade, precisely this has happened in Japan and Germany, substantially mitigating the demographic shock.
In Japan, the most important drivers have been a high (and rising) participation rate of older workers and a substantial increase in participation by women in their prime working years (25-54). Female labor force participation in this age group now exceeds that of the US.
In Germany, the most important driver has been a sharp rise in labor force participation of the population near retirement age (55-64 years), from only 52% in 2005 to nearly 70% in 2014. It seems plausible that this is a response to the Hartz reforms of 2002-2005.
The US stands out as the only one of the countries in which participation of the prime working age population has declined. Adjusted for demography, the US participation rate is the lowest of the countries considered.
01 July 2015, 00:38
WHITE HOUSE TO ANNOUNCE ON WEDNESDAY TIMING FOR OPENING OF U.S. EMBASSY IN
CUBA -U.S. OFFICIAL
01 July 2015, 00:35
OBAMA AND KERRY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BOTH ADDRESS AGREEMENT WITH CUBA - SENIOR
U.S. OFFICIAL
01 July 2015, 00:34
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO ANNOUNCE ON WEDNESDAY IT HAS REACHED AGREEMENT WITH
CUBA ON REOPENING EMBASSIES AND RESTORING RELATIONS - U.S. OFFICIAL
01 July 2015, 00:17
PUERTO RICO'S PREPA PAYMENT DUE WEDNESDAY WOULD LIKELY BE PARTLY FINANCED BY
MONOLINES- REUTERS' SOURCES
01 July 2015, 00:17
PUERTO RICO'S PREPA, CREDITORS CLOSE TO DEAL TO AVOID POSSIBLE DEFAULT ON
PAYMENT DUE WEDNESDAY - REUTERS' SOURCES
01 July 2015, 00:11
There is a high foreign exchange (FX) mismatch risk for companies in five
Latin American countries, according to FitchRatings. We have released our 2015
"Latin America Corporates FX Sensitivity Analysis, which examined the impact
from local currency (LC) depreciation for Fitch-rated Latin American (LatAm)
corporates' capital structure and cash flow generation. The analysis data has
been grouped by country and also includes individual company's FX risk
exposure.
LatAm corporates exhibit a high level of foreign currency (FC) denominated debt reliance, representing 62% of the total outstanding debt on an aggregate basis as of September 2014. The high cost and limited availability of hedge instruments, as well as restrictive domestic capital market conditions, have led to high FC mismatch risks for some issuers, especially high-yield credits. Positively, this risk is alleviated to an extent by the issuers' FC-based EBITDA generation and an insignificant short-term FC debt amortization schedule during 2015.
In the region, corporates in Argentina, Mexico and Peru have the highest currency mismatch risks. In Argentina, over 80% of the total debt of Fitch-rated issuers was based in FC. Mexicanhigh-yield issuers, which account for about 55% of the total number of rated corporates, have had limited access to the domestic capital market, resulting in an overwhelming proportion of FC debt. Peru's banking system is highly dollarized and hedging is almost non-existent. About 90% of the debt of rated corporates in this country is denominated in a FC. Positively, about half of the issuers in Peru are exporters or sell commodity products that are priced in U.S. dollars.
The FC debt exposure for Chile is also high, but the risk is manageable. Exporters comprise about one-quarter of the rated corporates in the country, resulting in an estimated FC EBITDA proportion of about 62% on a median basis, which enables the issuers to cope with FX risks. The median proportion of the FC-denominated net debt was 78%.
Brazil and Colombia had relatively comfortable FC debt exposure. Net debt denominated in a FC as proportion of total debt after hedging in these countries was about 30% on a median basis. Brazil corporates tend to hedge only part of their FC exposure, unlike financial institutions, despite a relatively sophisticated financial market. Colombian corporates, excluding big oil producers, do not have a high portion of FC cash flow generation, but the local banks and capital markets continue to provide ample liquidity and long-term funding options, which help corporates better manage the refinancing activities.
Based on a sensitivity test that resulted in a 20% depreciation of their respective LCs, 17 out of the 178 issuers analyzed were found to be more vulnerable to FX risk than others, as their leverage ratio deteriorated by more than 1.0x. While some of these companies have mitigating factors, such as solid operation and balance sheet or a linkage to strong parent or the sovereign, Fitch's ratings have incorporated their higher level of FX vulnerability into the ratings. No ratings changes have occurred from the analysis.
LatAm corporates exhibit a high level of foreign currency (FC) denominated debt reliance, representing 62% of the total outstanding debt on an aggregate basis as of September 2014. The high cost and limited availability of hedge instruments, as well as restrictive domestic capital market conditions, have led to high FC mismatch risks for some issuers, especially high-yield credits. Positively, this risk is alleviated to an extent by the issuers' FC-based EBITDA generation and an insignificant short-term FC debt amortization schedule during 2015.
In the region, corporates in Argentina, Mexico and Peru have the highest currency mismatch risks. In Argentina, over 80% of the total debt of Fitch-rated issuers was based in FC. Mexicanhigh-yield issuers, which account for about 55% of the total number of rated corporates, have had limited access to the domestic capital market, resulting in an overwhelming proportion of FC debt. Peru's banking system is highly dollarized and hedging is almost non-existent. About 90% of the debt of rated corporates in this country is denominated in a FC. Positively, about half of the issuers in Peru are exporters or sell commodity products that are priced in U.S. dollars.
The FC debt exposure for Chile is also high, but the risk is manageable. Exporters comprise about one-quarter of the rated corporates in the country, resulting in an estimated FC EBITDA proportion of about 62% on a median basis, which enables the issuers to cope with FX risks. The median proportion of the FC-denominated net debt was 78%.
Brazil and Colombia had relatively comfortable FC debt exposure. Net debt denominated in a FC as proportion of total debt after hedging in these countries was about 30% on a median basis. Brazil corporates tend to hedge only part of their FC exposure, unlike financial institutions, despite a relatively sophisticated financial market. Colombian corporates, excluding big oil producers, do not have a high portion of FC cash flow generation, but the local banks and capital markets continue to provide ample liquidity and long-term funding options, which help corporates better manage the refinancing activities.
Based on a sensitivity test that resulted in a 20% depreciation of their respective LCs, 17 out of the 178 issuers analyzed were found to be more vulnerable to FX risk than others, as their leverage ratio deteriorated by more than 1.0x. While some of these companies have mitigating factors, such as solid operation and balance sheet or a linkage to strong parent or the sovereign, Fitch's ratings have incorporated their higher level of FX vulnerability into the ratings. No ratings changes have occurred from the analysis.
30 June 2015, 23:45
Westpac Research notes:
Australian 3yr government bond (futures) yields ranged between 2.06% and 2.11%, while the 10yr yield ranged between 3.02% and 3.10%.
Australian 3yr government bond (futures) yields ranged between 2.06% and 2.11%, while the 10yr yield ranged between 3.02% and 3.10%.
30 June 2015, 23:44
Westpac Research notes:
The US 10yr treasury yield ranged sideways between 2.31% and 2.38%. Fed VC Fischer said the FOMC will consider hiking rates in coming months, adding the moves would be gradual.
The US 10yr treasury yield ranged sideways between 2.31% and 2.38%. Fed VC Fischer said the FOMC will consider hiking rates in coming months, adding the moves would be gradual.
30 June 2015, 23:42
Westpac Research notes:
AUD/NZD 1 day: Broke above the stubborn 1.1300 level and if sustained today, targets 1.1580 during the weeks ahead.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The RBA will probably remain on hold (albeit with easing risk), while the RBNZ is currently in easing mode. Expected RBA vs RBNZ direction thus favours AUD/NZD over the medium term. The next major target is 1.1580.
AUD/NZD 1 day: Broke above the stubborn 1.1300 level and if sustained today, targets 1.1580 during the weeks ahead.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The RBA will probably remain on hold (albeit with easing risk), while the RBNZ is currently in easing mode. Expected RBA vs RBNZ direction thus favours AUD/NZD over the medium term. The next major target is 1.1580.
30 June 2015, 23:41
Westpac Research notes:
NZD/USD 1 day: Made a fresh five-year low yesterday at 0.6748, the multi-month downtrend remains intact.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Our next major target is 0.6560 which was a major low in May 2010. The two main factors expected to contribute to NZD/USD weakness during the next few months are RBNZ easing (the OCR falling to 2.75% or lower) and Fed tightening (FF mid-point to rise by 25bp in September).
NZD/USD 1 day: Made a fresh five-year low yesterday at 0.6748, the multi-month downtrend remains intact.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Our next major target is 0.6560 which was a major low in May 2010. The two main factors expected to contribute to NZD/USD weakness during the next few months are RBNZ easing (the OCR falling to 2.75% or lower) and Fed tightening (FF mid-point to rise by 25bp in September).
30 June 2015, 23:40
Westpac Research notes:
AUD/USD 1 day: Holding up well during the past two days, with a possibility of rising to 0.7770 today.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Eventual resumption of the strong US dollar trend should weigh on the AUD during the next few months. The next major downside target is 0.7500.
AUD/USD 1 day: Holding up well during the past two days, with a possibility of rising to 0.7770 today.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Eventual resumption of the strong US dollar trend should weigh on the AUD during the next few months. The next major downside target is 0.7500.
30 June 2015, 23:39
Westpac Research notes:
AU swap yields 1 day: The 2yr should open around 2.19% while the 10yr should open around 3.38%.
AU swap yields 1-3 month: The 2yr is eking a sideways range of 2.05%-2.30%, while the 10yr should continue to rise with US yields and targets above 3.50%.
AU swap yields 1 day: The 2yr should open around 2.19% while the 10yr should open around 3.38%.
AU swap yields 1-3 month: The 2yr is eking a sideways range of 2.05%-2.30%, while the 10yr should continue to rise with US yields and targets above 3.50%.
0 June 2015, 23:38
Westpac Research notes:
NZ swap yields 1 day: Given the US bond yield movement overnight, the NZ 2yr swap rates should open 1bp higher at 3.10%, while the 10yr should open 2bp higher at 3.92%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Short maturity NZ interest rates should fall further during the next few months. The RBNZ has started a fresh easing phase, which should be worth 75bp in total, and possibly 100bp. We target a low in the 2yr of 2.90% (an OCR of 2.75% plus 15bp risk premium). The 10yr yield will continue to be hostage to expectations of Fed policy, but assuming normalisation starts in September, we target at least 4.30%.
NZ swap yields 1 day: Given the US bond yield movement overnight, the NZ 2yr swap rates should open 1bp higher at 3.10%, while the 10yr should open 2bp higher at 3.92%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Short maturity NZ interest rates should fall further during the next few months. The RBNZ has started a fresh easing phase, which should be worth 75bp in total, and possibly 100bp. We target a low in the 2yr of 2.90% (an OCR of 2.75% plus 15bp risk premium). The 10yr yield will continue to be hostage to expectations of Fed policy, but assuming normalisation starts in September, we target at least 4.30%.
30 June 2015, 23:38
SOUTH AFRICA M3 MONEY SUPPLY ACTUAL 10.4% (YOY) VS PREVIOUS 9.5%
30 June 2015, 23:33
OIL PRICES PARE GAINS AFTER API DATA SHOWS U.S. CRUDE BUILD LAST WEEK VS
EXPECTATIONS FOR DRAW
30 June 2015, 23:12
AUSTRIAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHELLING SAYS GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAID NEW
GREEK PROPOSAL WOULD COME AND WOULD BE CLOSER TO INSTITUTIONS' PROPOSALS
30 June 2015, 23:12
AUSTRIA'S SCHELLING SAYS SHOULD GREECE REQUEST TO LEAVE EU, PROCESS WOULD
TAKE MONTHS
30 June 2015, 23:11
FITCH - BREAKDOWN OF THE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CREDITORS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RISK THAT GREECE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HONOUR ITS DEBT OBLIGATIONS
30 June 2015, 23:11
FITCH - DOWNGRADED GREECE'S LONG-TERM FOREIGN AND LOCAL CURRENCY ISSUER
DEFAULT RATINGS BY ONE NOTCH TO 'CC' FROM 'CCC'
30 June 2015, 23:11
FITCH DOWNGRADES GREECE TO 'CC'
30 June 2015, 23:10
AUSTRIAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHELLING SAYS GREEK FINANCE MINISTER SAID NEW
GREEK PROPOSAL WOULD COME AND WOULD BE CLOSER TO INSTITUTIONS' PROPOSALS
30 June 2015, 23:10
AUSTRIAN FINANCE MINISTER SAYS DOES NOT KNOW ABOUT GREEK OFFER TO CANCEL
REFERENDUM
30 June 2015, 23:09
U.S. MINT AMERICAN EAGLE SILVER COIN SALES IN JUNE RISE 139.2 PCT TO 4.84 MLN
OZ
30 June 2015, 23:08
U.S. MINT AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD COIN SALES IN JUNE RISE 253.5 PCT TO 76,000 OZ
30 June 2015, 23:04
FOR MONTH, DOW DOWN 2.2 PCT, S&P 500 DOWN 2.1 PCT, NASDAQ DOWN 1.6 PCT
Resistance Levels
R1: 1.2495 (23.6% Retracement Level)
R2: 1.2560
R3: 1.2613
Support Levels
S1: 1.2390 (38.2% Retracement Level)
S2: 1.2304
S3: 1.2219(61.8% Retracement Level)
30 June 2015, 22:48
- USD/CAD surged from 1.2365 (June 30th high) to 1.2410 in the late Uk session , and is testing strong resistance level at 1.2495 (23.6% Retracement Level ).The pair is set to reach 1.2550 and 1.2600 psychological level in the short term, As the US dollar is broadly stronger against CAD in the short term.
- The currency is trading at 1.2483 level, the immediate support can be seen at 1.2390. A break below this level will expose the pair to next support level at 1.2304.
- Major resistance can be found at 1.2495 a break above this level will exposes it to the 1.2560 handle.
Resistance Levels
R1: 1.2495 (23.6% Retracement Level)
R2: 1.2560
R3: 1.2613
Support Levels
S1: 1.2390 (38.2% Retracement Level)
S2: 1.2304
S3: 1.2219(61.8% Retracement Level)
30 June 2015, 22:46
EUROGROUP TELECONFERENCE SET FOR WEDNESDAY 0930 GMT TO DISCUSS STATE OF PLAY
WITH GREECE -SPOKESMAN
30 June 2015, 22:40
MEXICO MAY FISCAL BALANCE (PESOS)* DECREASE TO -59.11 BLN MXN VS PREV -21.17
BLN MXN