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Monday, 7 September 2015

Review :What to make of the payroll report and Dollar

04 September 2015, 16:03
Was there a payroll report from US, which missed expectations by large? Yes, but where is the volatility then. Where is the weak Dollar?
Looking at the market, it is really difficult to say there has been a payroll report which missed estimate by as much as 50,000. In fact one would rather say, if there has been a payroll, it is slightly better than expected.
Actual Facts -
  • August headline Payroll came at 173,000 missing expectation of 220,000.
  • Average hourly earnings rose by 2.2%, rising as much as 0.3% from July.
  • Unemployment rate dropped to 5.1% from 5.3% in July, better than 5.2% expected.
  • Last two months' payroll has been revised up by +44,000, with last month's payroll revised to 245,000 from 215,000.
  • Manufacturing payroll down by -17,000.
Why Dollar is relatively strong in spite of headline miss?
  • A larger drop in unemployment rate to 5.1% and large upward revise (+44,000) is providing support, but there could be much larger undercurrent behind Dollar's move.
  • In a world, plagued by low growth and uncertainty regarding slowdown in China, Dollar seems a much better, moreover safer bet than any other.
Dollar index is currently trading at 96.52, up 0.13% for today.