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Wednesday 5 August 2015
News

EUR/USD fell for the third consecutive session to slip below at the close of trading on Tuesday, in spite of positive developments in Greek Bailout talks which provided increased optimism that a comprehensive deal could be reached before the end of the summer.

The currency pair traded between 1.0879 and 1.0987 during Tuesday's session, before settling at 1.0886 – down 0.5E9% on the session. The euro closed lower against its American counterpart for the sixth time in seven sessions, closing under 1.09 for the first time since July 20. Over the last month of trading, the euro is down approximately 2% against the dollar.

EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0808, the low from July 20 and was met with resistance at 1.1131, the high from July 27.

On Tuesday afternoon, Greek officials said they were confident a deal on a comprehensive bailout could be completed over the next two weeks before it owes a €3.5 billion loan repayment to the European Central Bank (ECB) on August 20. If a deal is not completed, Greece will likely need to secure a second round of bridge financing in order to make the payment on time.

Greece finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos is expected to conclude week-long discussions with officials from the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and ECB at the end of this week. Last month, Greece and its international creditors agreed on the framework of a deal that could provide the cash-strapped nation with up to €86 billion over a period of three years needed to stave off bankruptcy. Officials from both sides of the negotiating table characterized Tuesday's talks as a step in the right direction. In addition, the European Council announced on Tuesday that it has approved a change in the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) that could provide Greece with additional bridge financing, if necessary.

In the U.S., factory orders for the month of June rose 1.8%, just above analysts' expectations for a 1.7% gain. A surge in civilian aircraft orders by more than 60% on a monthly basis, as well as increases in furniture and automobile orders helped bolster the overall reading. In May, factory orders declined by 1.0% on a month-over-month basis as aircraft orders fell by 32% in comparison with its April level.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell to an intraday low of 97.31, before ticking up to 98.04, up 0.48% on the session. Yields on U.S. 10-Year Treasuries surged five basis points to 2.194%.

The dollar trimmed losses against the other major currencies on Tuesday, after data showed that U.S. factory orders rose broadly in line with expectations in June, while markets continued to eye the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

EUR/USD was steady at 1.0952, pulling back from session highs of 1.0987.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that factory orders increased by 1.8% in June, meeting expectations. Factory orders fell by 1.1% in May, whose figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 1.0%.

The dollar has been boosted recently by expectations that the improving U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short term interest rates in the coming months, possibly as early as September.

Investors were looking to the government nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released on Friday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show jobs growth of 215,000 last month.

Monthly jobs gains above 200,000 are seen by economists as consistent with strong employment growth.

The dollar turned fractionally higher against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.08% at 1.5572.

Data earlier showed that the Markit U.K. construction purchasing managers’ index fell to 57.1 from 58.1 June, which was the highest level in four months. Economists had expected the index to rise to 58.4.

Elsewhere, the dollar was steady against the yen, with USD/JPY at 124.03 and higher against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.33% at 0.9724.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars were stronger, with AUD/USD rallying 1.61% to 0.7402 and with NZD/USD gaining 0.32% to 0.6585.

The Aussie was boosted after data on Tuesday showed that Australia's retail sales increased by 0.7% in June, beating expectations for a 0.5% gain.

A separate report showed that Australia's trade deficit narrowed to A$2.93 billion in June from a revised A$2.68 billion in May. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to widen to A$3.10 billion in June.

At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at 2.00%, in a widely expected move.

Meanwhile, USD/CAD slipped 0.10% to 1.3142, still close to Monday's 11-year peak of 1.3176.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 97.39, off session lows of 97.31.


U.S. factory orders rose broadly in line with market expectations in June, underlining optimism over the health of the economy and supporting the case for a U.S. interest rate hike this year, official data showed on Tuesday.

In a report, the U.S. Census Bureau said factory orders increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.8% in June, meeting expectations.

Factory orders fell by 1.1% in May, whose figure was revised from a previously reported decline of 1.0%.

EUR/USD was trading at 1.0964 from around 1.0961 ahead of the release of the data, GBP/USD was at 1.5608 from 1.5604 earlier, while USD/JPY was at 124.08 from 124.05 earlier.

The US dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, was at 97.53, compared to 97.51 ahead of the report.

Meanwhile, U.S. stock markets were steady after the open. The Dow 30 fell 0.01%, the S&P 500 shed 0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite tacked on 0.06%.

Elsewhere, in the commodities market, gold futures traded at $1,090.50 a troy ounce, compared to $1,091.10 ahead of the data, while crude oil traded at $46.05 a barrel from $46.12 earlier.

The dollar edged lower on Tuesday as investors turned their attention to the upcoming U.S. jobs report for July, which could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates.

EUR/USD inched up 0.12% to 1.0963 from 1.0949 late Monday.

The dollar has been boosted by expectations that the improving U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise short term interest rates in the coming months, possibly as early as September.

Investors were looking to the government nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released on Friday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show jobs growth of 215,000 last month.

Monthly jobs gains above 200,000 are seen by economists as consistent with strong employment growth.

The dollar softened following the release of disappointing U.S. economic reports on Monday.

Official data showed that U.S. consumer spending slowed in June and a separate report showing that manufacturing activity moderated in July.

Another report showed that U.S. construction spending rose at the slowest rate in five months in June.

USD/JPY eased 0.15% to 123.85, down from Monday’s highs of 124.26.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.17% to 97.43.

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