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Friday 10 July 2015
NEWS


10 July 2015, 05:12
HK'S CHINA ENTERPRISES INDEX EXTENDS GAIN, UP MORE THAN 4 PCT
10 July 2015, 05:07
The labor market in Brazil has been a puzzle for the three years, when growth was markedly weak yet the unemployment rate continued to decrease. The explanation for this is the fact that the non-active labor force increased in the past three years, as income transfer programs and subsidized credit lines for higher education incentivized people to not seek work.

However, the need for the government to provide fiscal consolidation, and thereafter changes in social and labor benefits, again increased the active labor force. In a recessionary environment, people are not finding jobs, so the unemployment rate has started to move up.

"We forecast the unemployment to reach 7.3% by the end of this year and 7.8% by the end of 2016",said Barclays in a report on Friday.
10 July 2015, 05:06
SAUDI ARABIA WITHDREW 244 BLN RIYALS FROM RESERVES SO FAR THIS YEAR SAYS C. BANK GOVERNOR - AL-IQTISADIYA
10 July 2015, 05:06
SAUDI GOVERNMENT DEFICIT WILL EXCEED ESTIMATED 145 BLN RIYALS THIS YEAR SAYS C. BANK GOVERNOR - AL-IQTISADIYA
10 July 2015, 05:05
SAUDI ARABIA HAS ISSUED BONDS WORTH 15 BLN RIYALS TO LOCAL BANKS SAYS CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR - AL-IQTISADIYA NEWSPAPER
10 July 2015, 04:55
The south-west monsoon rains have gone into deficit again. After a significant improvement in late June, rainfall conditions have deteriorated in past two weeks. Cumulative rainfall between 1 June and 9 July stood at 4% below normal, down from a 10% surplus last week. This drop came as rainfall was 51% below normal last week. A silver lining is that despite below-normal rains, the geographic distribution of rainfall remains favourable, with 26 out of 36 regions still showing excess or normal rainfall conditions. Also, the water stock has improved in 91 major reservoirs, with levels as of 2 July 129% of levels seen last year.

July-August remain the key months for monsoons, and next four weeks account for ~30% of total seasonal rainfall. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast rainfall to be below normal in July and maintains that seasonal forecast is likely to be at 88% of the long-period average. Another private agency Skymet, however, is forecasting rainfall to be normal in July. Sowing activity continues to pick up and was up ~57% relative to 2014 as of 3 July, with strong increases seen in pulses (~132%) and oilseeds (403%). The government has also made inflation management a top priority by placing import orders for wheat, pulses and oilseeds.

In its recent statement, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted that monsoon-related risks dominate its concerns around inflation, although the governor recently noted that the progress of the monsoon this year has been good. Although India's headline inflation remains manageable, risks around food inflation persist.

Barclays notes:

  • We think the lack of an increase in MSPs in mid-June for the summer crops is a welcome sign.
  • We forecast FY 15-16 average CPI inflation of 5% (H1 FY 15-16: 4.5%, H2 FY 15-16: 5.5%).
  • We expect monetary policy in the coming months to remain data dependent. Despite the RBI's recent cautious guidance, the risk of another cut in H2 FY 15 remains, in our view. 
However, a potential cut will remain contingent on greater clarity on a number of factors, including trends in commodity prices, the monsoon outcome, the likely 2016 inflation trajectory and the impact of a potential Fed rate hike, possibly in H2 15.
10 July 2015, 04:44
CHINA CSI300 INDEX UP OVER 5 PCT
10 July 2015, 04:40
CHINA'S YUAN OPENS TRADE AT 6.2077 PER DOLLAR VS LAST CLOSE AT 6.2088
10 July 2015, 04:39
New Zealand's annual inflation rate slowed to near-zero in the March quarter, as low underlying inflation was compounded by a short, sharp plunge in world oil prices. With fuel prices having rebounded since then, the June quarter figures, released next Thursday, is expected to tell a more representative story. Inflation pressures have remained subdued to date, due to spare capacity in the local economy, soft global inflation and the strong New Zealand dollar. However, with the latter now reversing course, annual inflation is expect to see closer to the Reserve Bank's target next year.

A 0.7% rise in the CPI is expected for the quarter, of which about 0.5 percentage points is due to fuel. The combination of a modest rebound in oil prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar means that standard petrol prices have reversed most of their March quarter decline. In addition, the deep discounting seen in some regions has come to an end, though it is not sure what impact this will have on the overall result.

Outside of oil, tradable goods inflation is expected to remain modestly negative. While the NZD trade-weighted index was down 2% on average over the quarter, exchange rate movements typically take the best part of a year to fully pass through to tradables prices.

Non-tradables inflation, which is driven more by domestic conditions, is expected to remain subdued, slowing to a fiveyear low of 2.2%yr. One particular aspect will be notable for its absence: electricity prices are normally a significant plus in the June quarter CPI. But this year saw a steep cut to lines charges in Wellington, which offset price hikes elsewhere.

"Our forecast of a 0.7% quarterly increase in the CPI is quite a bit higher than the Reserve Bank's forecast of 0.4% in its June Monetary Policy Statement, with the difference coming on the tradables side (excluding fuel). However, we suspect that a stronger than expected outturn would actually be welcomed by the Reserve Bank, which has set its sights on dragging inflation back towards the middle of its 1-3% target range",says Westpac Research.

10 July 2015, 04:30
AUSTRALIA MAY INVEST HOUSING FINANCE* DECREASE TO -3.2 % VS PREV 2.6 %
10 July 2015, 04:30
AUSTRALIA MAY HOUSING FINANCE* DECREASE TO -6.1 % (FCAST -3.5 %) VS PREV 1.0 %
10 July 2015, 04:13
BOJ offers to buy Y 140 bln JGBs (Residual maturity is more than 25YR) outright from 7/14
10 July 2015, 04:11
BitX mentioned how it was to receive requests from Nigeria, traders and businesses, something that led them to full-fledged launch in Africa’s largest economy.
Greece. Decentralized cryptocurrency market hasn’t lost under the pressure: bitcoin market is booming due to an unannounced hype that says that Greeks are buying it in large numbers.
Venture Capitalist Fred Wilson.
He adviced Reddit to use blockchain technology to monitor contents without policing the users.
“You are either going to police the site or you are going to build something that cannot be policed even if you want to,” he says. “In using a collective network of computers to monitor the site, blockchain entries could be made to serve that function.”
10 July 2015, 04:11
BOJ offers to buy Y 240 bln JGBs (Residual maturity of 10YR to 25YR) outright from 7/14
10 July 2015, 04:11
BOJ offers to buy 400 bln yen JGBs (Residual maturity of 5YR to 10YR) outright from 7/14
10 July 2015, 04:11
BOJ offers to buy Y 1.75 trln Treasury Discount Bills outright from 7/14
10 July 2015, 04:02
PHILIPPINES SAYS MAY EXPORTS -17.4 PERCENT FROM YEAR EARLIER
10 July 2015, 03:23
JAPAN FINMIN ASO: RAPID FOREX VOLATILITY IS UNDESIRABLE 
10 July 2015, 03:22
JAPAN FINMIN ASO:  IT IS GOOD FOR JAPAN THAT YEN IS PERCEIVED AS SAFE CURRENCY 
10 July 2015, 03:01
SEOUL SHARES OPEN UP 0.45 PCT
10 July 2015, 03:00
SOUTH KOREAN WON OPENS ONSHORE TRADE AT 1,131.5 PER DOLLAR VS 1,133.9 AT PREVIOUS CLOSE
10 July 2015, 02:55
Barclays notes:

Yields could drop in the near term if the situation in Greece or China deteriorates, causing the Fed to delay liftoff until 2016 and prompting additional BoJ easing. However, JGB yields should begin to rise over a longer horizon if a capex-driven economic recovery should alter the corporate I/S balance. We continue to recommend paying the USDJPY 4yf1y basis, paying 5yf5y swaps + buying 20y JGBs, and long 10y BEI positions.
10 July 2015, 02:54
Barclays notes:

The new fiscal forecasts are dependent on welfare cuts and a £50bn increase in tax receipts. This has left the medium-term financing requirement forecasts some £40bn lower than in March. Short-dated spreads remain our favoured long in ASW.
10 July 2015, 02:53
Barclays notes:

This weekend's decision from the EUR/EU Summits will likely be an important turning point for Greece's place in the eurozone. Our base case remains for a Grexit, particularly in light of the referendum outcome. However, we expect contagion to remain limited with the looming ECB meeting. We recommend closing receive 1y1y fwd EONIA, but staying long outright 5y5y fwd Italy, 10y Bund, Bund ASW vs EONIA and short ERU5.
10 July 2015, 02:52
Barclays notes:

Greece remains in the headlines, pushing sovereign yields lower globally. With 10y US Treasury yields having declined to 2.2%, we turned neutral on our long recommendation earlier in the week; US-Germany spread wideners look more attractive at current levels. We believe receiving 5y Eonia still looks attractive, given the disconnect between the outlook for inflation and hiking cycle.
10 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN JUN CORP GOODS PRICE YY* DECREASE TO -2.4 % (FCAST -2.3 %) VS PREV -2.1 %
10 July 2015, 02:50
JAPAN JUN CORP GOODS PRICE MM* DECREASE TO -0.2 % (FCAST 0.0 %) VS PREV 0.3 %
10 July 2015, 02:47
Is China's economy bound to slow when Q2 GDP arrives on Tuesday evening eastern time? Consensus thinks so with the median estimate pegged at 6.8% and almost all estimates below the prior 7% reading for Q1. It may well be somewhat too soon to expect a moderately cooler rate of GDP growth if softer activity in the financial industry keyed off of stock market developments is the reason.

That's because stocks didn't peak until mid-June and thus well into the quarter. During the second quarter, proxies for activity measures like new account openings, trading volumes, and margin loan accounts continued to climb. If the stock market's weakness is cause for expecting softer growth, then it might have to wait until Q3 for that effect to occur. That is expected to be a relatively modest economic impact.

China also releases aggregate financing, exports, retail sales, industrial production, and property prices. It will be a key week for China watchers.
10 July 2015, 02:10
PERU CENBANK SAYS IT IS WATCHING INFLATION TO DETERMINE CHANGES IN ITS MONETARY POLICY STANCE IF NEEDED
10 July 2015, 02:04
U.S. STOCK FUTURES JUMP 1 PCT AFTER GREEK REFORM PROPOSALS
10 July 2015, 02:01
PERU'S CENTRAL BANK SETS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE AT 3.25 PERCENT (3.25 PCT PREVIOUS)
10 July 2015, 01:55
BOJ: banks' reserve balance at 172.7 trln at end of day
10 July 2015, 01:55
BOJ: current account balance at 228.5 trln at end of day
10 July 2015, 01:39
Canada's housing starts beat the market estimate at 202.8K for June (est. 190.0K), up from a revised 197.0K in May. That will help the residential investment contribution to Q2 GDP, but does not mean much given the more important disappointments in other sectors. Tonight we get the June employment report where expectations are for some give back after May's large 58.9K increase.

"We are slightly more optimistic than consensus (RBC: 0K; cons: -10K), although in terms of next week's BoC meeting, we don't think this one report will be enough to push the Bank one way or the other",says RBC Capital Markets.
10 July 2015, 01:32
VELAYATI SAYS IT IS UP TO U.S. TO LEAVE THE TALKS BUT IRAN IS READY TO CONTINUE THE NEGOTIATIONS
10 July 2015, 01:32
KHAMENEI'S ADVISER VELAYATI SAYS SECRETARY KERRY'S COMMENTS ON NUCLEAR TALKS WITH POWERS IS PART OF U.S. PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE AGAINST IRAN
10 July 2015, 01:32
VIENNA - TOP ADVISER TO IRANIAN LEADER KHAMENEI SAYS IRAN'S REDLINES SHOULD BE RESPECTED IN NUCLEAR TALKS WITH MAJOR POWERS - TASNIM AGENCY
10 July 2015, 01:28
GREECE SAYS WILL SEEK FUNDING TO COVER LOAN OBLIGATIONS TOTALING 53.5 BLN EUROS UNTIL THE END OF JUNE 2018
10 July 2015, 01:08
Market Roundup
  • Fed's Evans wants to wait until mid-2016 to raise rates; George sees risk in waiting.
  • BOJ could cut to 2015 GDP f/c due to China slowdown - Nikkei.
  • Greek junior coalition party leaders to shortly submit a proposal to creditors.
  • Merkel rules out "haircut" on European loans to Greece.
  • Germany's Schaeuble: Greece needs to deliver concrete prior action for support.
  • ECB's Nowotny: Greek talks must produce strong outcome on Sunday for ECB support.
  • IMF lowers 2015 global growth f/c to 3.3% from 3.5%, holds '16 f/c at 3.8%.
  • IMF warns about further USD appreciation, greater difficulties in China's econ transition.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims 297k, f/c 275k, 282K-prev (July 4 holiday seen a factor).
  • CA House Starts, Annualized* Jun 202.8k, f/c 190.0k, 197K-previous.
  • MX 12-Month Inflation Jun 2.87%, f/c 2.9%, 2.88%-prev, record low.
  • Emergency Eurogroup planned for Saturday from 3 p.m. (1300 GMT).
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
  • --:--CN M2 Money Supply YY* Jun f/c 11%, 10.80%-previous
  • --:-- CN New Yuan Loans* Jun f/c 1050.0b, 900.8b-previous
  • --:-- CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Jun f/c 14%, 14.00%-previous
  • --:-- CN FX Reserves* Q2 f/c 3.75t, 3.730t-previous
  • 23:50 JP Corp Goods Price MM* Jun f/c 0%, 0.30%-previous
  • 23:50 JP Corp Goods Price YY* Jun f/c -2.3%, -2.10%-previous
  • 01:30 AU Housing Finance* May f/c -3.5%, 1.00%-previous
  • 01:30 AU Invest Housing Finance* May 2.60%-previous
  • 02:00 JP TR IPSOS PCSI Jul 43.98-previous
  • 02:00 CN TR IPSOS PCSI Jul 67.48-previous
  • 02:00 AU TR IPSOS PCSI Jul 47.71-previous
  • 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence. Index* Jun 41.4-previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
No Significant Events
Currencies Summary
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0990 levels and currently trading at 1.1006 levels. It has made session high at 1.1068 and low at 1.0990 levels. The pair, failed to advance above daily resistance level at 1.1068 and retreated back towards 1.000 levels, as sellers stepped in. The political events in the coming days are likely to have a significant effect on movements of this pair. Traders are eagerly waiting for Alexis Tsipras to present new Greece proposals to EU officials today to reach a much needed deal on Sunday. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1070. To the downside, support levels are located 1.1000, 1.0915.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is supported around 1.5325 levels and currently trading at 1.5381 levels. It has made session high at 1.5410 and low at 1.5340 levels. Currently the cable is trading at 1.5381 levels. Sterling bounced from a one-month low at late U.S session, drawing support from a British budget bill that was not as fiscally tight as many investors had expected. The pound is unmoved by the Bank of England's decision to, keep its benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.5 percent, as policymakers struggle with how to balance improving wage growth in Britain against more threatening  signals from the global economy. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5405. To the downside, support levels are located 1.5340, 1.5320. Overall trend of this pair remains bearish in the short term.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is supported around 120.40 levels and currently trading at 121.26 levels. It has made session high at 121.61 and low at 120.17 levels. The pair is consolidating at 121.32 levels, and is set to reach 122.00 handle in the short term. The demand for Japanese Yen as safe heaven fell as Chinese stock rebounded after incurring significant losses on Wednesday. Shanghai's CSI300,SSEC shares 6% gain was enough for restoring investor's confidence after and month long headlines dominated by Greece crisis. In late New York trading, the dollar was up 0.5 percent against the yen at 121.32.  To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 121.60. To the downside, support level is located at 120.40. The pair gained almost 80 pips today and the bearish sentiment for this pair is set to continue further towards 120.00 and later 119.80.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is supported around 0.9460 levels and currently trading at 0.9485 levels. It has made session high at 0.9495 and low at 0.9465 levels. The pair is trying to break resistance level at 0.9492. The greenback has appreciated 0.3 percent against the Swiss Franc due to broader demand for US dollar. Swiss franc typically rally when there is financial or geopolitical stress as investors seek out safer and more liquid investments, but worries about Greece eased somewhat as EU  is awaiting reform proposals from Greece. In the early U.S session US labor department released US Jobless data which printed 297k actual against previous 275k. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9490. To the downside, support level is located 0.9460.
10 July 2015, 01:04
GREECE REFORMS PROPOSAL SAYS TO SAVE 1 PCT OF GDP WORTH OF PENSION SAVINGS IN 2016, CURB EARLY RETIREMENT
10 July 2015, 01:03
GREECE REFORMS PROPOSAL SAYS ZERO DEFICIT CLAUSE ON PENSIONS WILL BE SUSPENDED UNTIL OCT 2015 WHEN THERE WILL BE PENSION REFORM LEGISLATION
10 July 2015, 01:00
GREECE REFORMS PROPOSAL TO CUT DEFENCE SPENDING BY 300 MLN EUROS BY 2016 END
10 July 2015, 00:58
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL SAYS WILL RAISE THE SOLIDARITY SURCHARGE ON INCOME TAX
10 July 2015, 00:51
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL TO INCREASE LUXURY TAX AND IMPLEMENT TAX ON TV ADVERTS IMMEDIATELY
10 July 2015, 00:50
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL EKAS BENEFIT TO BE GRADUALLY PHASED OUT FOR ALL PENSIONERS BY END DECEMBER 2019
10 July 2015, 00:49
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL TO INCREASE TAX ON SHIPPING COMPANIES
10 July 2015, 00:49
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL TO RAISE CORPORATE TAX IN 2015
10 July 2015, 00:47
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL SAYS PRIMARY SURPLUS TARGETS TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN BECAUSE SITUATION HAS CHANGED
10 July 2015, 00:47
U.S. HOUSE SPEAKER BOEHNER, OTHER REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS, SAY LEADERSHIP AT OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE FIRED
10 July 2015, 00:44
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL SETS VAT FOR HOTELS AT 13 PCT
10 July 2015, 00:43
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL INCLUDES VAT RATE OF 23 PCT FOR RESTAURANTS AND CATERING
10 July 2015, 00:43
GREEK REFORMS PROPOSAL SETS PRIMARY SURPLUS TARGET OF 1 PCT IN 2015, 2 PCT IN 2016
10 July 2015, 00:14
Greece remains front of mind today in the Asian session, with the focus now on a new proposal that was just submitted in recent hours. The proposal will be formally discussed by Eurogroup FinMins on Saturday ahead of an EU leaders' summit on Sunday, but today we watch for any public comments on the viability of the plan. Sunday is now viewed as the day when a decisive decision will likely be made on Greece.
10 July 2015, 00:01
UK TO ANNOUNCE CHANGES TO PLANNING SYSTEM TO INCREASE HOME-BUILDING, BOOST PRODUCTIVITY ON FRIDAY -GOVERNMENT
10 July 2015, 00:00
SOUTH KOREA JUN IMPORT PRICE GROWTH YY* INCREASE TO -14.0 % VS PREV -14.6 %

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